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S&P 500 at Resistance, Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Charts Showing Divergence

S&P 500 at Resistance, Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100 Charts Showing Divergence

Paul Robinson, Strategist

S&P 500/Dow Jones/Nasdaq 100 Technical Highlights:

  • S&P 500 is trading at strong resistance
  • Dow Jones demonstrating relative weakness
  • Nasdaq 100 new cycle high, leading the way

Check out the forecasts for Global Stock Indices and other markets on the Trading Guides page.

S&P 500 is trading at strong resistance

The S&P 500 is trading at big resistance via the 2800/17 zone, where on repeated occasions last year the market turned lower. It recently turned lower from this zone as well after reaching to the upper-bounds of it. In confluence with price is the lower parallel of a recently broken channel.

If the current push higher fails it may turn into a double-top or the top of a trading range down to perhaps the recent low of 2722. In either event, resistance must be respected as such until we see a breakout.

Given the significance of resistance and lack thereof after 2817, a closing breakout is seen as probable to take the market up to the record high or better. But at this time the general feeling is that we need a bit more information before drawing any concrete conclusions as to what the next maneuver should be…

Stocks are rallying, but will it last in the long-term? Find out where our analysts see stocks headed in the Global Equities Forecast.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (2800/17 is strong resistance)

S&P 500 daily chart, 2800/17 is strong resistance

Dow Jones demonstrating relative weakness

The Dow is showing glaring divergence on the back of Boeing (BA) getting hammered following another crash of one its 737 jets. While this might be a reason to excuse the Dow of divergence, it nevertheless shows relative weakness and may be a sign of fracturing in breadth. At the least, it gives traders a target for shorting should we see the S&P start to roll over from resistance. If the S&P breaks out look for the Dow to follow suite back through the 26k+ territory that it turned down from not long ago.

Dow Daily Chart (relative weakness)

Dow daily chart, relative weakness

Nasdaq 100 new cycle high, leading the way

The Nasdaq 100 and its basket of bull market darlings (FAANG) are showing the most strength and this may be a sign that the S&P will break on through to the other side. For traders targeting longs on a broader market breakout, this is the go-to index for now.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (leading the way)

Nasdaq 100 daily chart, leading the way

To learn more about U.S. indices, check out “The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.” You can join me every Wednesday at 10 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.