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S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook Weakens

S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 Technical Outlook Weakens

2019-02-12 09:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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S&P 500/Dow Jones/Nasdaq 100 Technical Highlights:

  • S&P 500 pulled off around 200-day, at risk of more weakness
  • Dow Jones rolling from no major levels, support levels to watch
  • Nasdaq 100 rolling down from near 200 as well

Check out the forecasts for Global Stock Indices and other markets on the Trading Guides page.

S&P 500 pulled off around 200-day, at risk of more weakness

The S&P 500 came within only a small handful of points of the 200-day MA but considered close enough for a test. No splitting hairs here. In any event even if we see strength take price up to or even slightly over, look for another struggle to ensue. A strong breakout above the 200-day will bring into play more upside to strong resistance over 2800.

The market still looks overbought off the low from December and on that with the widely-watched 200-day standing in its way, more weakness is expected in the near-term. Below the Friday low is the high from January 18 at 2675, then after that meaningful levels are a little difficult to come by. The 2612-area around where the low from the last dip developed late last month may be an area the market finds demand.

With global stock market volatility high, see where our analysts see stocks headed in the Q1 Global Equities Forecast.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (200 a big spot)

S&P 500 daily chart, 200 a big spot

Dow Jones rolling from no major levels, support levels to watch

The Dow lost momentum at no particular level, it just weakened along with the rest of the market. The 200-day was already exceeded and has thus far provided some support on the initial decline since Feb 5. There is the gap down at 24580 to watch as support with further selling below the Friday low of 24883. On the top-side, a breakout above 25439, along with the S&P taking out the 200-day, should have the Dow headed towards the 26k-area, where a couple of material swing-highs were carved out.

Dow Daily Chart (watch 200 as support)

Dow daily chart, watch 200 as support

Nasdaq 100 rolling down from near 200 as well

As was the case with the broader S&P 500, the NDX is coming off from very near the 200-day. The NDX will look to support around 6816 on weakness, with the last swing-low of the rally from December arriving near 6600. Looking higher, the 200-day sits as resistance and not far above that there are swing highs heading into 7100/200; these levels are likely to prove problematic on further strength.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (200-day/price levels above as resistance)

Nasdaq 100 daily chart, 200-day/price levels above as resistance

To learn more about U.S. indices, check out “The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.” You can join me every Wednesday at 10 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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