We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Central bank independence has several advantages and disadvantages. Find out what they are in-depth with @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wVFXbbTxf1 https://t.co/WkwZK6wtzy
  • The $GBPUSD may be carving out a 4-year bearish candlestick pattern as the $EURGBP downtrend prolongs. GBP/JPY may rise but be wary of #Brexit risks clouding technical analysis. Get your GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/wzV4fygKWe https://t.co/hpDmrh0LLo
  • Get your technical setups for the British Pound ahead of the key #Brexit vote in Parliament this weekend here $GBPUSD $EURGBP $GBPJPY - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/10/19/GBPUSD-EURGBP-GBPJPY-Technical-Analysis-Amid-Brexit-Deal-Vote.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/TBdvAY6GN2
  • The Australian Dollar could reverse gains if #Brexit is forced to be delayed. Global growth slowdown woes and other fundamental risks may also undermine $AUDUSD upside progress. Get your $AUD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/VAs2C3cpQj https://t.co/9mqJ0DSLZZ
  • Here is my trading video for the week ahead: '$EURUSD, #Pound, Volatility - The Biggest Risks and Opportunities Ahead' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/10/19/EURUSD-Pound-Volatility---The-Biggest-Risks-and-Opportunities-Ahead-.html
  • $GBPUSD is on the verge of pushing above five-year resistance. A break above with follow-through may precede considerable upside movement. Get your GBP/USD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/0qfh7TRWJn https://t.co/GImIwuGodX
  • The $AUD may resume its downtrend while the #ASX 200 stock index powers higher as dovish monetary policy drives interest rates lower. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/UPlHZrt6c2 https://t.co/EIIf9xackw
  • (Fundamental Forecast) Australian Dollar Could Wilt if Brexit Delayed, Growth Risks Hang $AUDUSD #Brexit - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2019/10/19/Australian-Dollar-Could-Wilt-if-Brexit-Delayed-Growth-Risks-Hang.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/2aOYhblN3g
  • The $USD faces selling pressure against the Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. More losses may be in store in $USDMYR as $USDPHP descends through rising support from 2013. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/t3kmFpmg1w https://t.co/miBrgxmtkA
  • $AUDJPY has launched yet another attempt to breach a multi-month downward trend resistance after failing to break above it in September. Will two consecutive defeats precede a reversal lower? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/b3nWUu0QZy https://t.co/Lj0ZSWOdp1
S&P 500 Price Analysis – Wary as Highs Near, Dow Struggles to Keep Up

S&P 500 Price Analysis – Wary as Highs Near, Dow Struggles to Keep Up

2018-08-09 07:58:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
Share:

S&P 500/Dow Highlights:

  • S&P 500 is a stone’s throw away from record highs
  • Caution warranted on fresh longs at this juncture (shorts too)
  • Dow lagging behind, if we see a turn it could get be a better short

For longer-term trading ideas, Q3 forecasts, and a library of educational content, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides

S&P 500 is a stone’s throw away from record highs, Dow lagging

The difference a week makes. Last week we were looking at a bearish short-term configuration that if selling took the S&P 500 through support it would likely open up room for more selling, but instead the area around 2800 led to a strong push higher.

The rally the past week has the S&P staring down new record highs on a move over 2873, but as the case has been for some time, buying new swing highs hasn’t been a particularly fruitful approach. Instead, it’s been waiting for dips that have paid. Yes, we are talking about the record high, not just an ordinary swing high, but even then, in the past the market has had a perverse way of ebbing just about the time all looks to be in the clear.

However, just because a cautious view is warranted on longs (new longs in particular), it doesn’t mean shorts are necessarily warranted at this juncture. Perhaps a volatile turnabout in price action around record highs will, but not until then, and even then, it’s a play for the aggressive. For now, risk/reward isn’t particularly great for either side of the tape.

Traders remain largely short the S&P 500, check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how this acts as a contrarian indicator.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (Highs ahead)

S&P 500 daily chart, highs ahead

The Dow is operating a bit differently here as it sits right around 4% from the record high, lagging the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and the Russel 2000. As the S&P approaches a new high the Dow could soon contend with the peak of the February bounce at 25800.

If we see price action become volatile in the indices here soon, the Dow looks like the best of the bunch to pick on from the short-side. But even then, again, shorting this market in the absence of a clear risk-off theme is for the more aggressive-minded trader. It's also August, and barring downside risk, price action could be a grind...

Dow Daily Chart (Lagging, 25800 resistance)

Dow daily chart, lagging, 25800 resistance

We just put together a piece last week highlight the differences between the three major U.S. indices in this piece, ‘Difference Between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.’. Check it out to learn the varying characteristics one should know if you are going to trad them.

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.