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S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Double Top or New Record?

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Double Top or New Record?

What's on this page

S&P 500 Highlights:

  • Will the S&P 500 double-top or trade to a new record?
  • Time for summer rally running out
  • How the market reacts up here vitally important

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Will the S&P 500 double-top or trade to a new record?

The last time we looked at the S&P 500 in depth we noted support around the 2800-line, and indeed it held the market during its shallow pullback, giving the market a platform from which to launch higher. Now that the gap from January at 2853 is all but filled, record highs are just around the bend, or are they?

How the market reacts up here is quite important, as it’s been a fairly long journey to come full circle. It took two weeks to dismantle the market in Jan/Feb and now going on 6 months to recoup those losses. Not that this is anything new, stocks declining in sudden fashion and then taking a disproportionately long time to recoup losses, but it does bring in the possibility of seeing a big double-top or quick new high before the rug gets yanked again.

So, how price action plays out up here is indeed important. Time is running out for the summer rally as July draws towards a close. If we start to see volatility pick up, restlessness creep in, then we could at the least see the market pull back, if not start another round of material weakness as seasonality begins to turn decisively negative for longs.

We aren’t inclined to be bearish just yet as there isn’t anything suggesting the market can’t continue to go higher, but caution on new longs is certainly warranted as even a new record high could merely be a head-fake before a set-back unfolds, if not a lot worse.

Traders remain largely short the S&P 500, check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how this acts as a contrarian indicator.

S&P 500 Daily Chart

S&P 500 daily chart

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.