News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • US #NaturalGas futures (Henry Hub) shoot past 6USD during Tuesday's Asia-Pacific trading session (though prices have trimmed most gains), nearing the 2014 high Prices have climbed over 37% since September 23rd https://t.co/DuzWPdN1kA
  • WTI #CrudeOil prices extend gains during Tuesday's Asia-Pacific trading session, nearing the July high at 76.95 Prices are up almost 0.9% on the day so far https://t.co/7afvVUXO27
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/vtqOrB41CF
  • Brent oil prices hit $80 per barrel for the first time since October 2018 #trading #OOTT
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/QwYndzNRVs
  • This week has started with the recovery rally in risk assets stalled and the Dollar looking down multiple barrels of fundamental threat in monetary policy and debt politics. $EURUSD is well positioned as indicator 1.1650-1.1750 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/09/28/EURUSD-and-USDJPY-Staged-for-Breaks-as-Fed-Calculus-Shifts-US-Debt-Limit-Looms.html https://t.co/y8pFw0XRqr
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/OYWQSvNK12
  • AUD/NZD, Could This be the Turnaround? - #AUDNZD chart on @TradingView https://t.co/Hl6VSfO5R8
  • Another pleasure being on @ausbiztv with host @AusAndrewG talking about US indices, rising bond yields and $USDJPY Check out the full interview here! - https://t.co/GWWCZ7t9Tf https://t.co/WmqUvCMvpZ
  • 🇦🇺 Retail Sales MoM Prel (AUG) Actual: -1.7% Previous: -2.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-28
S&P 500 Trading Outlook: Hard to Buy, Even Harder to Short

S&P 500 Trading Outlook: Hard to Buy, Even Harder to Short

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • S&P 500 continues to rise, buying not appealing but neither is shorting
  • Top-side channel line might provide support again on a pullback
  • Volatility likely to rise in meaningful way, just not today and not likely tomorrow either

Start building your knowledge today with DailyFX Trading Forecasts & Guides

In the first couple of days to start the year, we noted that the S&P 500 was extended but that momentum wasn’t worth fighting. At the time, the market was at the upper end of the channel starting back at the beginning of December, a channel which it has been exceeded in recent sessions, and even as late as Wednesday tested as support.

The view hasn’t changed, the market is extended and while it may be tempting for some to short it because it’s ‘too high to buy’ or simply overbought, ‘up here’ can become ‘down there’ quickly in as strong of a market as the current one. Initiating fresh longs doesn’t hold much appeal, but shorting holds even less. There will be a time for shorts, just not yet.

What is a trader to do? Another dip back to the upper parallel may offer traders a level of support to lean on, but the time for a meaningful decline may also be nearing. Keep an eye on price action on any decline which unfolds. Not all declines are created equal. Those with momentum want to be sidestepped until momentum subsides and reverses, while dips (corrections) which are shallow and lacking any meaningful power are viewed as more favorable for entry.

As we’ve discussed on a couple of occasions, most recently at the very end of last year, volatility looks poised to rise at some juncture, and likely in a meaningful and sustainable way. You can check out detailed commentary on the subject in the Top Trading Opportunities in 2018 under “Resurgence of Volatility, S&P 500 Runs into Trouble”. But until we see cracks in the lining, we’ll have to continue trading in the market environment we are currently being dealt.

Check out these 4 methods for Building Confidence in Trading

S&P 500: Daily

S&P 500 daily price chart

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES