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S&P 500 Technical Outlook: ‘Dip-trip’ Buyers Waiting

S&P 500 Technical Outlook: ‘Dip-trip’ Buyers Waiting

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • U.S. markets re-open after holiday to finish out the week
  • S&P 500 poised to remain firm and close the year near or at the highs
  • Looking for a good risk/reward opportunity to join aboard

Start boosting your knowledge base today with DailyFX Trading Guides.

Yesterday, the U.S. was closed (Japan, too) for the Thanksgiving holiday, with markets reopening today to conclude the week. But there is almost certain to be a large number of empty seats on the desks as traders look to take advantage of a long weekend. This sets up for illiquid trading conditions and, barring any unforeseen headlines of significance, a lack of volatility.

Overall, stocks continue to move to higher ground and it looks unlikely at this juncture in the year we will see a meaningful decline develop, only perhaps shallow pullbacks. This doesn’t mean it’s a time for complacency, but it also means we need to temper our expectations for a rising volatility environment in the event the market starts to experience minor weakness. Falling stocks tend to wrestle up excitement as volatility heightens, and I’ve never met a trader who doesn’t like volatility (unless of course they are short volatility).

Ideally, we get a little consolidation period or minor dip for an opportunity to jump aboard a late, late-year rally, or ‘Santa Claus’ rally, with Christmas just around the corner. Perhaps the market will be kind enough to present a low/risk opportunity to establish long positions for higher prices, or perhaps it won’t and choppy conditions will continue to prevail. Watch how the market responds to the trend-line off the August low should we see a dip to that point.

While the S&P 500 looks poised to close at or very near record highs when the year is finally in the books, we are approaching a potentially pivotal spot as 2018 quickly approaches. It was touched on in yesterday’s ‘big-picture’ technical outlook, but should we rise up into the 2625/50 vicinity price action could become interesting. For more on this, check out yesterday’s piece.

Check out this guide for tips on Building Confidence in Trading.

S&P 500: Daily

S&P 500 Technical Outlook: ‘Dip-trip’ Buyers Waiting

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.