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S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Correction Over?

S&P 500 Technical Outlook: Correction Over?

Paul Robinson,

What’s inside:

  • S&P 500 surges with global markets following round one of French elections
  • Breaks multi-week trend-line, recaptures November trend-line
  • Still looking for one more level to be overtaken before calling the correction over

Can the rally in global equity markets continue through Q2? See our forecast for details on what’s driving stock markets!

On Friday, this is what we had to say regarding the current technical structure in the S&P 500: The case for lower prices is still intact, but barely. The market needs to turn lower pronto or else we will be looking to change gears towards a market rally.”

Yesterday, global equity markets surged thanks to the outcome of the first round of the French elections. No market was left behind. The 1%+ rally in the S&P put it above the trend-line running down off the March 1 record high and the index also managed to recapture the November trend-line. To further increase the likelihood we’ve seen the worst of the multi-week correction we would like to see the swift 4/5 reversal-day high at 2378 taken out, first. From there it shouldn’t take long for the market to reach new record highs.

The Nasdaq 100 is already there, which is a good sign for the rest of the market. The S&P 500 and Dow look to not be far behind in notching out fresh highs.

Before running off the to the races it’s possible we first see a decline from here and fill Monday’s gap, but we’re not banking on that at the moment as a high probability scenario. True, gaps often get filled, but not always in a very timely fashion. General risk appetite looks strong enough to keep the market from falling back that far.

To conclude and reiterate; until we see the 4/5 high overcome we aren’t ready to call the correction over. We are placing importance on that day simply because of how violently the market reversed (it was the day the March FOMC minutes were released). Beyond that day high only 2390 stands in the way of the record high at 2401.

S&P 500: Daily

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Come check out the commodities and equity indices webinar with Paul every Tuesday for up to date analysis on the S&P 500. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.