S&P 500: Looking to Confluence of Support on Further Retracement
- Fed action/projections only upset markets in small way
- Consolidation/pullback phase underway
- Confluence of support lines offers spot for 'would-be' longs
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On Wednesday, the Fed raised rates by 25 bps as expected and mildly upset the market with its projection for three hikes next year via the ‘dot plot’. It certainly wasn’t upsetting for US dollar bulls, but did drop the S&P 500 from record highs notched out the prior day.
The surge higher in recent trade has been momentous, indeed, one which has been difficult to chase with new longs, but certainly not at a point of extension where it's worth trying to short, either. However, with a little pullback here, ‘would-be’ longs may soon get their chance to take a crack at longs at a confluence of support.
The February trend-line lies not far below along with the trend-line off the 11/4 low. Confluence takes shape around the 2245ish area. A hold there and turn higher should lead to a push to a new high towards 2300. However, should we see a break of those trend-lines a deeper decline may unfold back towards the top-side trend-line running as far back as February 2015. The t-line is in close approximation to the 11/30 peak at 2214. A move below there would be cause for concern and lead to a retest of the August record highs.
For now, though, global markets are well-bid and with the year-end nearing it looks unlikely we will see a sizable sell-off even if markets are extended. If it were another time of year a higher probability of a down-move would be assigned. We will continue to stay the course as long as the market does…
S&P 500: Daily
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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