News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • Gold remains higher despite positive Evergrande news out of China. Meanwhile, copper bulls are pushing prices upward as the potential for a housing crisis in China ebbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • GBP/USD has flattened overnight after its strongest rally in a month on Thursday. The British currency has been under pressure recently as an energy crisis has caused a number of gas providers to go bankrupt. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
  • Gold could suffer further near-term losses due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weak technical picture for price action. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Gold has been trending lower after failing to clear resistance in the $1835 area earlier this month. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DColmanFX here:
  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
S&P 500: It’s a Bull Until Proven Otherwise, Support Not Far Below

S&P 500: It’s a Bull Until Proven Otherwise, Support Not Far Below

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • The S&P 500 rips in unusual fashion given where it stands in context of trend
  • Looking for a dip/consolidation to join trend higher
  • Two lines of support lie not far below, a deeper retracement should go no further than confluence of support around 2214.

For trading ideas and education resources, see our Trading Guides.

On Wednesday, we said the S&P 500 was likely to continue holding a firm bid, which turned out just a few hours later to be an understatement. We’ve been conditioned since 2013, when the market first crossed above the previous record high in 2007, to expect a slow upward grind once trading in uncharted territory. While it was just one day, Wednesday’s rip was anything but slow and ‘grinding’. Perhaps it is just a one-off event, or maybe the market is ready to end the year with serious momentum.

In any case, we have no interest in trying to pick a top here. The trend doesn’t favor it, global risk appetite doesn’t favor it, bullish end-of-the-year seasonality doesn’t favor it. With that said, it’s difficult to establish longs at this particular point without first seeing some kind of dip or consolidation. It may be shallow and short-lived, but dip-buyers look likely to step in. We will operate with this bias until we see price action tell us otherwise.

For now, it seems prudent to patiently wait and see how the market treats the recent rip, and should we see constructive developments unfold in the days to follow we’ll look to potentially join the trend higher. The Feb 11 trend-line the S&P just crossed back above could be a point of short-term support to do just that, or a little lower at the trend-line off the 11/4 low. The lowest point of support that would need to hold before concern would set in, is the previous peak towards the end of November at 2214, which also roughly coincides with the top-side trend-line extending back to the early part of 2015.

S&P 500: Daily

S&P 500: It’s a Bull Until Proven Otherwise, Support Not Far Below

Created with Tradingview

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.