News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Euro’s forecast this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/kpBYVz31Bd #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/Im099ElT61
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.49% US 500: 0.24% Wall Street: 0.16% FTSE 100: 0.14% France 40: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/rsPhYcZW22
  • #HSI Hang Seng Index finished slightly below 30,000 mark as Southbound net flow via the stock connections fell three days in a row to HK$ 16,263 million, from a record high of 26,592 million on Jan 19th. Total southbound flows contributed to 31% HKEX's daily turnover on Thur. https://t.co/YkxXUHEFRa
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn more about controlling greed here: https://t.co/5GXReUsKRj https://t.co/edSSfv0SfT
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's webinar at 5:30 AM EST/10:30 AM GMT where you can learn how to become a better trader in the current market climate. Register here: https://t.co/WeWGKtdlyz https://t.co/MPcM0lepdX
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Credit Conditions Survey due at 09:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-21
  • 🇿🇦 Retail Sales YoY (NOV) Actual: -4% Expected: -2.5% Previous: -2.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-21
  • 🇵🇱 Employment Growth YoY (DEC) Actual: -1% Expected: -1.2% Previous: -1.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-21
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/qA7wZiJfiX
  • 🇪🇸 Balance of Trade (NOV) Actual: €-0.59B Previous: €-0.65B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-21
The S&P 500 Comes Full Circle Ahead of Presidential Election

The S&P 500 Comes Full Circle Ahead of Presidential Election

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • The S&P 500 bounces from confluence of support, oversold conditions on FBI clearing Clinton (again)
  • We’ve come full circle ahead of the election since the new probe began/ended
  • Waiting on the outcome to decide what is what, no sense in taking risk ahead of it (levels noted)

In the last post, we were noting several lines of influence intersecting in the 2094/85 region along with the 200-day MA rising up from just a few short handles below. From Thursday’s piece,“even though consecutive down days, in and of itself, doesn't qualify as an oversold indicator, when we have a confluence of technical events close at hand it increases the odds we will see support act as a springboard.” After nine straight days of losses by the S&P 500, the longest streak since 1980, the combination of oversold conditions, significant support, and a bullish catalyst (FBI clearing Clinton) led to the 2%+ surge to start the week.

We’ve come full circle: The bulk of the recent decline starting late last month began on Friday, October 28 when the FBI said it was reinvestigating Clinton’s handling (or mishandling) of emails in light of new evidence. This sent the market reeling from about 2140 in the S&P, with it having already effectively priced in a Clinton victory given poll margins. Yesterday’s rally from Friday’s close at 2085 came after the FBI said on Sunday they found no reason to move forward with criminal charges against Clinton, sending the markets up big. The S&P 500 closed over 2131. Pretty much back to where we started.

Today is the election, and a lost trading day. It won’t be until early tomorrow morning GMT time we find out who the winner is, Clinton or Trump. It’s in Wednesday’s session we will see how the market feels about the outcome. (Join me tomorrow at 9 GMT for a look at price action following the results.) It looks as though a Clinton victory will be a positive, at least initially, whereas a Trump victory will likely lead to a sell-off, even if only short-lived. It also depends on how clear the results are; if they are extremely close, it won’t be surprising to see the results contested, especially if Clinton wins. If that is the case, it could be weeks before the winner is decided – a scenario which will keep the market on edge until we have a resolution.

In ‘wait-and-see’ mode. We see no point in placing any wagers at this juncture. This time, too, shall pass and we will move on to a more ‘normal’ trading environment where risk/reward will be more favorable.

Levels & lines to watch in the days ahead: Resistance lies not far ahead at the 10/10 upper parallel (~2137), the important 8/23 trend-line (~2152) which roughly coincides with the 10/24 high at 2155. An aggressive move above trend-line resistance will find the 9/22 to 10/10 period (~2170/2180). The first area of interest on the downside is in the 2115/20 vicinity, a zone which acted as solid support since September but presented little resistance yesterday. Below there, nothing substantial until the April lower parallel, lower parallel to the 8/23 trend-line, and the 200-day moving average. This cluster of support lies at ~2090 down to 2084.

S&P 500: Daily

The S&P 500 Comes Full Circle Ahead of Presidential Election

Created with Tradingview

Forecasts and Trading Guides

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please sign up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES