News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/UTWxbnNz7M https://t.co/W9awqb818J
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/lucvsACxu5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/UVvf51HiVP https://t.co/yywnE39MLU
  • The US Dollar is losing ground against ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/IDR possibly readying to extend declines. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/l705RWumj5 https://t.co/jBbMKYp0F5
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/YUhC9cCDpy
  • The US Dollar has spent much of October giving back September’s gains. Is there any hope for change? Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/3EHa6PV5yH https://t.co/PrP9J2klJk
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/wDVd2QvcjO
  • The longer-term EUR/USD outlook will hinge on Thursday’s ECB guidance; any hint of a further easing of Eurozone monetary policy would weaken it, but that is far from guaranteed. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/RmHCfIwdqp https://t.co/hvETa6mtft
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true. Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/M8WTvZgx2K
  • The Australian Dollar was under selling pressure this past week, but it held its ground. Bearish patterns brew in AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. Will EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD try to break higher again? Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/04kzJSqgNG https://t.co/ulPk1UneMM
S&P 500: Rally from Support Needed; Otherwise October Could Turn Ugly

S&P 500: Rally from Support Needed; Otherwise October Could Turn Ugly

2016-10-12 11:40:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
Share:

What’s inside:

  • The S&P 500 breaks free from wedge, faces a big test of trend support
  • Price action in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow suggests key support could fail
  • A turn higher is needed very soon; otherwise October could turn ugly

From Monday’s commentary:“The S&P 500 is nearing a make or break point, given the period of congestion is narrowing towards an inflection point where something material is likely to happen. A break lower quickly brings the trend-line off the Feb 11 low into play.”

And that is where we are at after yesterday’s sell-off...

The trend-line off the Feb lows is under assault and needs to hold, now, if the market is to avoid beginning a meaningful leg lower. A sustained move below yesterday’s low at 2129 (just below the Feb 11 t-line) will bring into focus the 2120/19 level (6/8 peak, 9/12 low). A break below this key support will not only represent a clear break of the 7-month trend-line, but also a significant lower low. Beyond 2119 a sell-off could grow legs with nothing visible to the left in terms of price. We would need to look to the widely-watched 200-day moving average, currently at just below 2068, and a lower parallel dating back to earlier in the year as the next possible support levels. Prior to that, minor support may be found at a lower parallel running back about a month ago.

On the flip side, if the Feb 11 trend-line can hold on a daily closing basis, the first point of contention on the upside is at 2044/45. This is a spot the market held on four occasions over the past 2+ weeks. (Old support = new resistance.)

S&P 500: Daily

S&P 500: Rally from Support Needed; Otherwise October Could Turn Ugly

Created with Tradingview

In looking at the Nasdaq 100, yesterday it broke the June trend-line and in the process also closed below the three peaks carved out during late summer. The drop in the Dow put it firmly below the Feb 11 trend-line and not far away from the Sep 12 low at 17995. These developments suggest the S&P may not hold here.

Dow/Nasdaq 100: Daily

S&P 500: Rally from Support Needed; Otherwise October Could Turn Ugly

Created with Tradingview

Bottom line: A turn higher is needed right about now. If not, volatility could begin to swell and October could start living up to its nickname, “Shocktober”.

Start sharpening your skills in technical analysis by checking out one of our many free trading guides designed for traders of all experience levels.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please sign up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES