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S&P 500: Swift Reversal for the Better, Or Just an Oversold Bounce?

S&P 500: Swift Reversal for the Better, Or Just an Oversold Bounce?

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Sharp reversal could lead to further upside, but more needs to be seen
  • 2085(ish) remains a key focal point in the near-term, possible bullish pattern could unfold
  • Hold times best kept short at this time with EU vote looming

Yesterday, sellers helped extend recent losses in the S&P 500 below one area of support in the 2057/61 vicinity, but buyers were found at the lower parallel ahead of the next support zone at 2045/35. The end result was a massive intra-day reversal. Shouldn’t have been a huge surprise, after all yesterday would have marked the sixth consecutive down day, an unusual occurrence. As we said in Thursday’s commentary, though, streaks don’t constitute as an overbought/sold indicator by themselves, but it does offer a warning.

In addition to the streak becoming long in the tooth, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading greater than their 10-day moving average moved to under 13% when the market was at its worst levels. Had the market closed down big on the day, this would have marked the most oversold since the Feb 11 lows (10%), but it didn’t. Regardless, it is still ‘down there’ at only 27%, and remains near its worst levels in months.

So will the market be able to make good on yesterday’s reversal, or was it just simply an oversold bounce? Well, if it isn’t immediately wiped away, then we would lean towards yes. But if sellers show up quickly and with vigor, then no, it was likely just an oversold rally.

On the radar is that 2085 level, again. This level continues to receive a lot of attention, and for good reason. (We went over this yesterday.) So far in early-morning US trade, the S&P is turning lower from 2083 (just ahead of 2085), which outside of the brief ‘FOMC-spike’ to 2086, several hourly bars closed at or beneath the 2083 level. So we will extend our key resistance level down a whole 2 handles to 2083; let’s call our resistance zone 2083 to 2086.

The trend-line off the right shoulder back on June 9 was breached and is currently being tested. The result of this pullback, assuming it doesn’t move below around 2064, could be the right shoulder of an inverse H&S formation. Too soon to tell just yet, just a thought. It would fit in nicely with the reversal bar holding and that 2085-ish level sure would make for one grand neckline.

Back to 2085-ish. Stay below, then hard to be a bull just yet. Stay below, then bears still have somewhat of an upper-hand. But clarity on the path in the very short-term is unclear.

SPX500 Hourly (Daily)

S&P 500: Swift Reversal for the Better, Or Just an Oversold Bounce?

The ‘Brexit’ vote is quickly closing in, and as such it is prudent that time-frames/hold times are dialed down. We will be glad when it’s passed and we can return to more “normal” times.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.