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S&P 500: Short-term Chart in Focus on Pullback

S&P 500: Short-term Chart in Focus on Pullback

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Market turning lower towards support
  • Rising trend-line and horizontal level in the 2085/88 vicinity
  • Pullback offers entry for longs, a break below shifts focus lower towards 2072

The S&P 500 pulled off a bit yesterday from around 2100, helping to alleviate short-term overbought conditions. Following the cash session bounce, overnight futures are making another push lower.

The big question we are asking: Will the market consolidate for a push above the noted zone of resistance between 2083 and 2116, validating the bull-flag breakout for a continued march towards the record highs at 2137? Or, will the S&P find a rash of sellers soon and thrust lower?

We shall soon find out, but while we are waiting on a clearer opportunity on the daily chart, let’s look at how things are shaping up on the hourly for possible short-term maneuvers.

A rising trend-line off the 5/19 low comes in a short ways lower around 2088, while horizontal support is just beneath there around 2085. The two technical events look set to collide, making for a nice confluence of support to operate off of from the long-side. In the near-term, as long as support holds, then establishing a long position with the current trend higher makes sense on this end. If support fails to keep the market up, then we will need to shift our focus lower. The next support level comes in at 2072.

SPX500 Hourly (Daily)

If we do see a nice move up off support be prepared to kick out any short-term longs should the market struggle once trading around the 2100 mark again. The S&P traded up to 2105 during Monday’s holiday session, but we are discounting it to a degree since the volume was so low. Beyond 2100, the 4/20 peak at 2111 will be our next resistance level, with 2116 (11/2015 high) just beyond.

To get our interested piqued from the short-side on further price appreciation, given the current trend is higher, we will need to see a sharp daily reversal bar which indicates sellers are standing their ground.

What makes a trader successful? Find out in our free guide, “Traits of Successful Traders”.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.