News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • GBP/USD extends the advance following the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to trade to a fresh monthly high (1.3773). Get your $GBPUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/DwKsABI9fZ https://t.co/6wni0J5ZM5
  • RT @Live_News_Nick: #Bitcoin https://t.co/WD6Sb5lkc8
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.55% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.52% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.03% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.51% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ZWwEzFX2bY
  • The S&P 500 closed out the week in style, making a clear break above trendline resistance. Eyes now shift to the bulk of earnings season $SPX $SPY $ES_F https://t.co/4igMPafh0q
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.20% Silver: -0.83% Gold: -1.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/iKG3lJuWba
  • RT @EricBalchunas: The deed is done. Home free… $BITO https://t.co/Qf3U9quSfy
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.71%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 79.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/OyMnOH8EOa
  • The past few weeks we have regularly mentioned that the SEC is likely to look kindly upon the few Bitcoin futures-based ETFs applications in its pending tray. Get your $btc market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/1XBRPL8IlD https://t.co/IKr70qAcDn
  • Gold prices are poised for a breakout in the days ahead as XAU/USD contracts into longer-term uptrend support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/nqPwZOLgEk https://t.co/rTWVRs1oJd
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.11% US 500: 0.77% France 40: 0.18% FTSE 100: 0.10% Germany 30: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/LMuIXZ9D6X
New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD & NZD/JPY Eye Employment Data

New Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD & NZD/JPY Eye Employment Data

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

NZD/USD & NZD/JPY OUTLOOK: NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TURNS TO 4Q EMPLOYMENT CHANGE & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

  • New Zealand Dollar outlook hinges largely on upcoming employment change and unemployment rate data due for release Tuesday at 21:45 GMT
  • NZD/USD and NZD/JPY overnight implied volatility measures jump ahead of high-impact New Zealand Jobs data owing to the potential impact it may have on RBNZ monetary policy
  • The Kiwi took a nosedive last month with NZD/USD and NZD/JPY down 4.5% and 4.9% respectively since the New Zealand Dollar printed its recent peak

NZD price action will likely be front and center during Tuesday’s afternoon trading session with New Zealand employment data on tap for release at 21:45 GMT. The New Zealand Dollar has dropped well over 4% so far this year, largely in response to a flood of risk aversion, but the Kiwi now looks to quarterly jobs data for a fundamental catalyst to spark the next major move in NZD/USD and NZD/JPY.

CHART OF NEW ZEALAND EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & INFLATION

New Zealand Dollar NZ Employment Chart Historical Data

New Zealand employment change figures for 4Q-2019 are expected to cross the wires at 1.2% year-over-year, which would be an acceleration from the 0.9% rise over the prior period. The New Zealand unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%.

Another uptick in New Zealand unemployment or slowdown in employment growth could weigh negatively on NZD/USD and NZD/JPY as it would likely encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to reiterate its accommodative monetary policy stance.

CHART OF RBNZ INTEREST RATE CHANGE PROBABILITIES

RBNZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Change Probabilities

I noted two weeks back that New Zealand Dollar outlook could lack enthusiasm with inflation remaining below the RBNZ 2% target midpoint and boosting inflation might remain an obstacle if employment data softens. That said, markets are expecting roughly 19-bps of interest rate cuts by the September 2020 RBNZ meeting according to the latest overnight swaps pricing.

NZD/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (SEPTEMBER 2019 TO FEBRUARY 2020)

NZDUSD Price Chart New Zealand Dollar

NZD/USD overnight implied volatility jumped to a 7-week high ahead of heavy-hitting New Zealand employment data on deck for release.

Technical resistance for spot NZD/USD appears to reside near the 0.6500 handle, which roughly aligns with its 200-day simple moving average and upper bound of its 1-standard deviation trading range derived from its overnight implied volatility reading of 9.87%.

Downside in spot NZD/USD price action could be contained by technical support provided by the lower bound of its options-implied trading range and area of confluence around the 0.6435 mark.

NZD/JPY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (AUGUST 2019 TO FEBRUARY 2020)

NZDJPY Price Chart New Zealand Dollar

NZD/JPY has surged off the 70.000 handle, its 200-day SMA as well as its broader uptrend support line extended through the August and October lows. Spot NZD/JPY is estimated to range between 70.524-71.440 with a 68% statistical probability judging by its overnight implied volatility reading of 10.46%.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES