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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Kiwi Dollar Keep Falling?

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Kiwi Dollar Keep Falling?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • NZ Dollar breaks monthly trend support after rejection at key resistance
  • Short-term chart positioning warns sellers may struggle to follow through
  • Overall trend bias still bearish absent recovery north of the 0.70 figure
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The New Zealand Dollar extended lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick at 2.5-year trend resistance and pushing through support guiding December’s month-long rally. Sellers are now flirting with minor resistance-turned-support at 0.6636. A daily close below that opens the door for a descent to challenge the dense 0.6425-96 support zone.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

A look at the four-hour chart suggests immediate selling pressure may struggle for follow-through however. Positive RSI divergence has emerged on a test of upward-sloping support set from early December, pointing to ebbing bearish momentum. What follows next may be mere consolidation before liquidation resumes, but a bounce might also materialize.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

4-hour NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

Initial resistance is at 0.6680, marked by January’s range top and reinforced by a falling trend line defining the descent from the December 31 high. A close above that would suggest near-term selling pressure has been neutralized. Upending the case for a long-term, structural decline will take more effort however. The monthly chart suggests that would require reclaiming a foothold near the 0.70 figure, above the 2018 high.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - monthly

Monthly NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

NZD/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -5% 2% -3%
Weekly -9% -6% -8%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.