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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Kiwi Dollar Keep Falling?

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Kiwi Dollar Keep Falling?

2020-01-08 02:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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NZD/USD Technical ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • NZ Dollar breaks monthly trend support after rejection at key resistance
  • Short-term chart positioning warns sellers may struggle to follow through
  • Overall trend bias still bearish absent recovery north of the 0.70 figure
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The New Zealand Dollar extended lower as expected after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick at 2.5-year trend resistance and pushing through support guiding December’s month-long rally. Sellers are now flirting with minor resistance-turned-support at 0.6636. A daily close below that opens the door for a descent to challenge the dense 0.6425-96 support zone.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Kiwi Dollar Keep Falling?

Daily NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

A look at the four-hour chart suggests immediate selling pressure may struggle for follow-through however. Positive RSI divergence has emerged on a test of upward-sloping support set from early December, pointing to ebbing bearish momentum. What follows next may be mere consolidation before liquidation resumes, but a bounce might also materialize.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Will the Kiwi Dollar Keep Falling?

4-hour NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

Initial resistance is at 0.6680, marked by January’s range top and reinforced by a falling trend line defining the descent from the December 31 high. A close above that would suggest near-term selling pressure has been neutralized. Upending the case for a long-term, structural decline will take more effort however. The monthly chart suggests that would require reclaiming a foothold near the 0.70 figure, above the 2018 high.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - monthly

Monthly NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

NZD/USD MIXED
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 14% -4% 4%
Weekly -6% -3% -4%
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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