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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Downturn Brewing at Trend Top?

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Downturn Brewing at Trend Top?

Ilya Spivak,
What's on this page


  • NZ Dollar may turn lower after showing Shooting Star candle at resistance
  • Four-hour chart reveals bearish Head and Shoulders patter, RSI divergence
  • Bearish scenario needs confirmation on a break of near-term trend support

The New Zealand Dollar has stalled after hitting resistance guiding it lower against its US counterpart since July 2017. The appearance of a dramatic-looking Shooting Star candlestick speaks to ebbing bullish conviction, which may precede a downturn.

Back-to-back support levels are clustered in the 0.6425-96 area. A daily close below its lower bound would breach the series of higher lows set from October’s swing bottom, neutralizing near-term upside pressure and setting the stage for resumption of the longer-term decline.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

Zooming in to the four-hour chart for a sense of more immediate positioning reveals what might be the makings of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern. Negative RSI divergence speaks to diminished upward momentum, bolstering the case for a downside scenario.

Nevertheless, confirmation on a break of upward-sloping trend support is still pending. Absent that, the current setup might be seen as unattractive on risk/reward grounds by would-be sellers as NZD/USD hovers squarely at near-term support (0.6576). A test of swing low support at 0.6518 may follow if it is broken.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 4 hour

4-hour NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

NZD/USD Bullish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -12% -8% -10%
Weekly -7% 11% -1%
What does it mean for price action?
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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.