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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: NZ Dollar Set to Test Below 0.60?

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: NZ Dollar Set to Test Below 0.60?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

NZD/USD Technical ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • New Zealand Dollar six-week uptrend broken, sellers poised to lead
  • Another challenge of 4-year lows near 0.62 figure looks likely ahead
  • Downtrend dynamics hint a drop toward 0.60 level may be brewing

Get help building confidence in your NZD/USD strategy with our free trading guide!

The New Zealand Dollar appears to be resuming the downward trend against its US namesake after rejection at resistance in the 0.6425-41 area. Prices have broken below rising trend support guiding the rise from early October lows, signaling that a six-week corrective upswing has run its course.

From here, sellers appear poised to challenge the August-September 2015 bottom in the 0.6197-0.6268 zone once again. If the next leg of the structural down move falls broadly in line with the trend average, a decline of 7-9 percent over the coming 3-5 months might be in the cards.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: NZ Dollar Set to Test Below 0.60?

Daily NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

That would put prices near the 0.60 figure, amounting to the weakest level in over a decade. That would put them within a hair of breaching the lower bound of a chart inflection zone in play since March 2003, at 0.5914. Breaking that threshold leaves relatively few barriers remaining along the way to the 0.50 figure.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - monthly

Monthly NZD/USD chart created using TradingView

NZD/USD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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