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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Down Trend Ready to Resume?

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Down Trend Ready to Resume?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

NZD/USD Technical Strategy: FLAT

  • NZ Dollar rejected at 3-month channel top resistance once again
  • Entering short premature while near-term uptrend remains valid
  • Long side bias requires break of resistance above the 0.74 figure

The New Zealand Dollar is retreating from resistance defining the down move since late January but confirmation of a lasting down move is still absent. The near-term trend continues to be defined by a series of higher highs and lows, hinting the immediate path of least resistance favors the upside.

From here, a daily close below rising channel support at 0.7293 opens the door for a test of the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7254. This is followed by a more series barrier at the intersection of the channel floor and the 38.2% level at 0.7140.

Alternatively, a move above the channel’s upper boundary – now at 0.7392 – paves the way for another challenge of long-standing resistance at 0.7434 (September 2017 high). If this too is breached, the July 2107 swing top at 0.7558 comes into the spotlight.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Down Trend Ready to Resume?

Final profit was booked on the short NZD/USD trade activated at 0.7320 and the position was closed. Re-entering on the short side seems premature as prices sit squarely above near-term support while getting long is unattractive in the context of overall positioning. On balance, staying flat seems most prudent.

NZD/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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