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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Down Trend Back in Play?

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Down Trend Back in Play?

2017-09-29 08:06:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Kiwi Dollar breaks rising near-term support, hinting down trend back in play
  • Choppy positioning argues against short trade absent clear invalidation point

The New Zealand Dollar broke guiding price higher over the past month, hinting that the medium-term down trend started in late July may be resuming. The boundaries of the long-term advance initiated in August 2018 remain intact and have not been challenge since mid-May.

The next layer of significant support lines up at 0.7132, the August 31 low, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a retest of former resistance at 0.7054. Alternatively, a push back above the just-broken countertrend line, now at 0.7242, broadly exposes the September 20 close at 0.7355.

Entering short seems somewhat compelling from a purely technical perspective but risk/reward considerations warn against taking the trade. Specifically, an acceptable invalidation point to place a stop-loss given a would-be target at 0.7132 is not apparent. With that in mind, opting to remain flat appears to be most prudent.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Down Trend Back in Play?

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