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Talking Points:

  • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.7207
  • Kiwi Dollar rebounds after dropping to one-month low vs USD
  • Overall positioning continues to argue in favor of a downside bias

The New Zealand Dollar paused to digest losses after hitting a monthly low against its US counterpart but chart positioning continues to favor a bearish outlook. Prices topped as expected after retesting trend line support-turned-resistance set from January 2016.

Near-term support is at 0.7138, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with daily close below that clearing a path to challenge the 50% level at 0.7064. Alternatively, a push back above the 0.7229-39 area (23.6% Fib, December 14 high) opens the door for a retest of the 0.7376-0.7403 zone (November 8, February 7 highs).

A short trade taken at 0.7205 hit its first objective and partial profit was booked. A subsequent rebound stopped out the second half of the position at breakeven. Risk/reward parameters look acceptable anew and a fresh short has been activated at 0.7207, targeting 0.7138. Half of exposure will be booked on hitting the first objective. A stop-loss will trigger on a daily close above 0.7239.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Downward Bias Favored