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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: A Top in Place Below 0.74?

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: A Top in Place Below 0.74?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Kiwi Dollar may have topped below 0.74 figure vs. US counterpart
  • Waiting for passage of event risk, improved risk/reward to enter short

The New Zealand Dollar may have put in a top against its US counterpart, with prices showing a Bearish Engulfing candle pattern and breaching near-term trend support. The appearance of negative RSI divergence hints at ebbing upside momentum and bolsters the case for a downside scenario.

From here, a daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7259 opens the door for a challenge of the 23.6% level at 0.7203. Alternatively, a reversal above the January 31 high at 0.7350 paves the way for a retest of the November 8 2016 swing high at 0.7403.

Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering a short trade from a risk/reward perspective. Furthermore, on-coming event by way of the US jobs report seems to carry significant downside risk for the greenback. As such, standing aside seems prudent for now.

Are retail traders buying or selling NZD/USD and what does it mean for the trend? Find out here!

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: A Top in Place Below 0.74?

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