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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Kiwi Retakes 0.70 Threshold

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Kiwi Retakes 0.70 Threshold

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Kiwi Dollar breaks higher from consolidation, retakes 0.70 figure
  • Upswing may offer short trade setup but entry now seems premature

The New Zealand Dollar launched higher out of a consolidation range against its US counterpart, reclaiming a foothold above the 0.70 figure. The series of lower highs and lows set from early November remains unbroken however, suggesting the dominant near-term bias remains bearish.

Near-term resistance is now at 0.7069, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of 0.7133 (trend line, 50% level). Alternatively, a move back below the chart pivot at 0.6964 clears the way for a retest of the December 23 low at 0.6862.

Current positioning doesn’t seem to offer an attractive trading opportunity at this stage. On one hand, prices seem poised to continue higher. On the other, the overall bias still favors the downside. With that in mind, staying on the sidelines until something more conclusive emerges seems to be most prudent.

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