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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: March Swing High Broken

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: March Swing High Broken

Ilya Spivak,

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Talking Points:

  • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Kiwi Dollar breaks March high, rises to highest in 10 months vs. USD
  • Standing aside as narrow trading range skews risk/reward against trade

The New Zealand Dollar advanced for a third consecutive day against its US counterpart, clearing the March swing high and hitting the highest level in 10 months. Prices have secured a foothold above the 0.70 figure anew but ATR-based volatility readings are hovering at 3-month lows, hinting at lackluster momentum.

A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7069 paves the way for a test of the 61.8% level at 0.7142. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 0.6995 opens the door for a challenge of a horizontal pivot at 0.6926.

The available trading range is too narrow relative to ATR to justify entering a trade on the long or short side from a risk/reward perspective given our preference for a stop-loss activated on a daily closing basis. With that in mind, we will stand aside for now and wait for a more attractive opportunity to present itself.

What does DailyFX analysts’ 2016 outlook mean for NZD/USD? Find out here !

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.