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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Sights Set on November Bottom

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Sights Set on November Bottom

2014-12-04 03:10:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • NZD/USD Technical Strategy:Flat
  • Support: 0.7682, 0.7525, 0.7386
  • Resistance:0.7802, 0.7937, 0.8034

The New Zealand Dollar broke through the bottom of a range that has contained prices since mid-November. Near-term support is in the 0.7682-96 area, marked by the July 2013 bottom and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposingthe 38.2% level at 0.7525.Alternatively, a reversal above the14.6% Fib at 0.7802clears the way for a challenge of the 23.6% Fib retracement at 0.7937.

While a short position seems compelling, we will tactically opt to stand aside for now. As a relatively high-yielding currency, the Kiwi can show outsized sensitivity to risk sentiment trends, which may turn volatile as high-profile event risk (ECB, NFP) looms ahead. This could derail chart positioning and we prefer to wait out the results rather than commit to a directional bias at this point.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Sights Set on November Bottom

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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