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Talking Points:

  • NZD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 0.8480-0.8513 (38% Fib ret., Oct 22 close), 0.8398 (50% Fib ret.)
  • Resistance: 0.8581-89 (channel floor, 23.6% Fib ret.), 0.8675 (Apr’13 high)

The New Zealand declined as expected against its US counterpart after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern. A break below support at the intersection of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (0.8581) and a rising channel floor (now at 0.8589) has exposed the 0.8480-0.8513 area marked by the October 22 close and the 38.2% level. Pushing further below that aims for the 50% Fib at 0.8398. Alternatively, a reversal back above 0.8581-89 targets the April 2013 top at 0.8675.

We will tactically opt against taking a position at this point. Traders are pricing in a 97 percent probability of an interest rate hike at this week’s RBNZ policy announcement, with threatens to send the Kiwi higher. With that in mind, we will remain flat.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis – Waiting for RBNZ to Pass

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for