We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso: Will discuss global economic downside risks at #G20 -BBG
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Monthly Budget Statement (SEP) due at 00:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: $86.0b Previous: $119.1b https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-15
  • (Asia Pacific AM Briefing) AUD/USD Downtrend Held, Yen Up. US-China Trade Deal Optimism Faded $AUDUSD $USDJPY - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2019/10/14/AUDUSD-Downtrend-Held-Yen-Up-US-China-Trade-Deal-Optimism-Faded.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/jJPPKvDHdy
  • The $AUD could be at risk of reversing gains recorded so far this month if the recent ‘phase 1’ US-China trade agreement fails to be finalized. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/uKq0SepxRG https://t.co/sJJSFKXjjn
  • The $SPX's range Monday was the second smallest in the past year. That wouldn't be particularly unusual if it weren't for the supposed break through in the US-China trade war the previous active trading day (Friday)... https://t.co/dUnaRCZufd
  • Some of top event risk over the next 24hrs are: Eurozone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) for October [9:00 GMT], German ZEW Survey Expectations for October [9:00], and New Zealand’s YoY Consumer Price Index [21:45] #NZD #Eurozone
  • The $SGD is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the $SGD and how to trade it from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/PyWV2maVHY
  • RT @bbands: If you are based in Chicago, I'll be joining @IG_US on October 28th for a talk on applications of Bollinger Bands in forex. Com…
  • As expected, sentiment couldn't find much follow-through after the conclusion of US-China Phase 1 talks last week. The MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index is off to an eerie familiar decline saw after the US-China #G20 trade truce back in June - https://t.co/fTs63TY1LB https://t.co/revJYXI2HX
  • List of countries engaged in a trade war (or may be entering a trade tiff) US-EU 🇺🇸🇪🇺 US-China🇺🇸🇨🇳 India-Brazil🇮🇳🇧🇷 Malaysia-India🇲🇾🇮🇳 South Korea-Japan🇰🇷🇯🇵
Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Key Retracement Likely To Face Test

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Key Retracement Likely To Face Test

2018-08-23 02:30:00
David Cottle, Analyst

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • The index has held nicely between two retracement levels
  • However, it looks as though momentum is waning
  • Another downside test looks probable

Get trading hints and join our analysts for interactive live coverage of all major economic data at the DailyFX Webinars.

The Nikkei 225 is proving little at present beyond the value of Fibonacci retracement analysis.

The Tokyo stock benchmark bounced last week more or less exactly at the 38.2% retracement level of the rise up from the lows of late March to the peaks of late May. These are upside and downside levels which have not been surpassed since, incidentally. That retracement comes in at 21,993 and the index has not had a daily close below that since early July, even if intraday forays below it have been quite common.

On the upside, we find the 23.6% retracement at 22,395. The index has poked above that at long last in the past couple of days, but it is too early to be sure that it is now firm support.

Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis: Key Retracement Likely To Face Test

If we see a solid run of daily closes, or even a weekly close, above that level, then the bulls will dare to dream, probably setting their sights on 22,543. This is the point at which a fairly steep fall was initiated back on August 10. If the Nikkei can get above that then early August highs around 22,600 will still bar the way back to the previous significant peak- July 18’s 22,936. Rescaling that looks like a very big ask for the moment, however.

On the downside, that retracement support at 21,993 looks very firm. However should it give way, the bears would be firmly in the driving seat. Below that, targets would likely be scant with the path relatively clear down to 50% retracement which comes in at 21,668. There is a little likely support above that, in the 21,800 region, but it seems unlikely to hold up for long should the 38.2% retracement give way.

As for which test is most likely, well momentum indicators aren’t giving very much away. However, the simple moving averages look slightly bearish, with the 20-day having recently crossed below the 50- and threatening the 100-day. This doesn’t mean of course that that 38.2% level is certain to give way.

But it might be as well to prepare for another near-term test.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter @DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.