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DAX 30, CAC 40 Technical Analysis: On Diverging Paths

DAX 30, CAC 40 Technical Analysis: On Diverging Paths

Paul Robinson, Strategist

DAX/CAC Technical Highlights

  • DAX weakening, but not doing so in a meaningful manner
  • CAC consolidating, showing signs of wanting to trade higher
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The DAX has been weakening, but not in a super meaningful way. That could change as U.S. stocks look vulnerable to a larger pullback. But as it stands now the price action is relatively benign. If the DAX can continue to hold here a rally to the prior high at 14169 and higher may soon develop.

Continued weakness will have support in focus around the 13446 area, with the March trend-line not too far beneath there to potentially help keep things pointed higher. The 200-day MA is also starting to align with that trend-line, so a decline to that point would be considered an important test.

Of the two big European indices, the CAC is the more interesting one here as it holds up extremely well beneath 5800. It has spent the past week+ consolidating after breaking out to a new post-corona high. There is a top-side channel line running over the top of the last three peaks since November, but a break above there will have in play the gap-down from the initial coronavirus shock.

The gap begins at 5875 and runs up to 6031. As long as risk trends don’t fall apart (see first paragraph), then a gap-fill may be in the not-too-distant future. But if risk trends do weaken from here then it will likely be too big of an ask in this sequence for the CAC to do.

For now, respecting the upward trends. The CAC has the upper hand versus the DAX from a relative strength standpoint; for bullish bets this makes the CAC more attractive and for short trades the DAX could be more attractive if things begin to fall apart.

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DAX Daily Chart (pullback gradual, so far)

DAX daily chart

DAX Charts by TradingView

CAC Daily Chart (consolidating, corona-gap in sight)

CAC 40 daily chart

CAC 40 Charts by TradingView

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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