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DAX 30 Long-term Confluent Support Providing Meaningful Floor

DAX 30 Long-term Confluent Support Providing Meaningful Floor

2020-03-26 14:00:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist

DAX 30/CAC 40/ Technical Highlights

  • DAX 30 40% decline stops at confluent support
  • CAC 40 doesn’t have same type of level but supported w/DAX

DAX 30 40% decline stops at confluent support

The DAX sell-off may have been put to an end for a while, with major stimulus from CBs and governments in place, along with major long-term support having been met and confirmed thus far. Looking at the monthly chart (log scale), the DAX has a trend-line rising up from 1982 under the 2003 and 2009 lows. The trend-line is also in confluence with the peaks (2000 & 2007) that proceeded the latter two bear market lows that make up part of the 1982-current trend-line.

The blast off the recent low is a good first start for sustaining a low. It won’t likely be an easy climb from here, as there has been much damage to the market’s psyche. The path is likely to be a grinding wind higher marked by starts and stops.

This can make trading a recovery move a bit tricky. The key is to not chase the market higher and wait for dips on long entries. There will likely be two-way opportunities for short-term traders, as well, who want to play both sides of the tape.

The first level on the top-side to watch is the 2018 low at 10279, followed by a gap-fill up to 10438, then another gap from 11032 up to 11541. The latter-most two levels will require quite a rebound to achieve, perhaps not until a good amount of time has elapsed, if at all.

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DAX 30 Monthly Chart (log-scale)

DAX 30 monthly chart, log-scale

DAX Daily Chart (dips likely offer best long entries)

DAX daily chart

DAX Chart by TradingView

CAC 40 doesn’t have same type of level but supported w/DAX

The CAC 40 doesn’t have the same type of substantial support as the DAX, but given the tight correlation between the two it can still be used as a reference point. Resistance clocks in at the 2018 low of 4556, followed by the gap-fill at 4603, then the 2011 trend-line that is in confluence with a gap from 4924 up to 5139. As is the case with the DAX, the latter levels will take some time to be seen if they are indeed to be seen. For now, one step at a time as markets look to stabilize.

CAC 40 Daily Chart (levels to watch)

CAC 40 daily chart

CAC 40 Chart by TradingView

Want to learn more about trading the DAX? Check out ‘How to Trade the DAX’, and join me weekly for technical updates in the Indices and Commodities webinar.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.