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DAX 30 Technical Outlook: Another Major Decline May Have Just Begun

DAX 30 Technical Outlook: Another Major Decline May Have Just Begun

Paul Robinson, Strategist

DAX 30 Technical Highlights

  • DAX weekly candle acts as powerful rejection from big resistance
  • Retesting of bottom of H&S top looks to be complete
  • Looking for much lower prices in weeks and months ahead

To find forecasts and educational content for traders of all experience levels, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

DAX is set up to sell-off in weeks and months ahead

The DAX had been a difficult market to navigate the past month or so with it trading up against long-term resistance but still maintaining bullish posturing in the intermediate-term. Look for that to change now as the technical picture appears to have taken a turn for the worse (for prices) and better (for traders).

Last week’s strong closing candle is coming from a big area with long-term implications. The head-and-shoulders top I’ve been discussing for months had its neckline thoroughly tested after it broke in October. Retests are a common occurrence for these types of patterns before their full bearish potential is realized.

In confluence with the neckline is the decisively falling 200-day MA, the underside of the 2011 trendline which was also broken in the fall, and the low from almost exactly one year ago today.

What was helping keep sellers at bay in the interim, though, was the constructive trend off the December low, with the lower parallel of the channel acting the guide. With last week’s break of not only the lower parallel but also lows created over the past several weeks the path of least resistance is setting up for sellers to regain control.

Given the magnitude of the topping pattern, anticipation is for the market to drop down to the 2009 bull market trend-line and lows from the 2015/16 sell-off. This would mean the DAX has another roughly 18-23% from current levels to go before possibly finding a bottom.

The first targeted area of support in the short-term is the Feb 8 low at 10683.

DAX Weekly Chart (Rejection from major resistance)

DAX weekly chart, rejection from major resistance

DAX Daily Chart (broke bullish channel)

DAX daily chart, broke bullish channel

CAC outlook obviously tied to DAX, but still stronger (for now)

The CAC outperformed the DAX on the way up off the December low, and this may continue to be the case as the market declines. But nevertheless, if the DAX is to sell-off as expected, the CAC won’t be left unscathed. On Friday, the channel off the December low was finally snapped. This helps turn the trading bias downward.

CAC Daily Chart (Channel snapped)

CAC daily chart, channel snapped

Want to learn more about trading the DAX? Check out ‘How to Trade the DAX’, and join me weekly for technical updates in the Indices and Commodities webinar.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.