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DAX 30 and CAC Technical Outlook: Long-term Support in Play

DAX 30 and CAC Technical Outlook: Long-term Support in Play

Paul Robinson, Strategist

DAX 30/ CAC Technical Highlights

  • DAX trying to mount a recovery from H&S neckline
  • CAC has big price support putting in a floor for now

For the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook for the DAX & Euro, check out the recently-released 4th Quarter Forecasts.

DAX trying to mount a recovery from H&S neckline

We’ve been discussing for a while now the possibility that the DAX is developing a major long-term topping pattern by way of a head-and-shoulders dating all the way back to June of last year. The big test is finally here, with the neckline coming under assault in recent days.

It’s to be treated as significant support until broken. As long as it can hold, then at the least the DAX will have a floor in it. Resistance isn’t far ahead in the near-term, the March low arrives around 11726. A break above will bring the September low at 11865 into play. The trend is firmly lower, making rallies at this time viewed as merely counter-trend moves.

Should a weekly close develop below the neckline, there is one more level of substantial support, or line in this case. The trend-line from 2011 isn’t too far away from the neckline, so while a break would be considered ominous given the size of the pattern, we will need to see the long-term trend-line threshold broken as well to really kick into gear the bearish potential of the head-and-shoulders top.

For market sentiment and to learn more about how to use it in your analysis, check out the IG Client Sentiment page.

DAX Daily Chart (neckline support)

DAX daily chart neckline support

DAX Weekly Chart (H&S top, 2011 trend-line)

DAX weekly chart, h&s top, 2011 trend-line

CAC has big price support putting in a floor for now

The precipitous decline has in focus a big area of support dating back to August of last year. The low of it extends below 5000 on a hiccup last year, but for the most part lows are in the 5030/60 vicinity. Yesterday’s doji reversal shows market interest and as long as the CAC can stay above 5k, then it will remain supported to some degree. A break below will have focus a good distance lower to the 2011 trend-line.

CAC Daily Chart (Big price support)

CAC daily chart, big price support

Want to learn more about trading the DAX? Check out ‘How to Trade the DAX’, and join me weekly for technical updates in the Indices and Commodities webinar.

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.