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DAX Technical Analysis: Dripping Price Action Has Waterfall Potential

DAX Technical Analysis: Dripping Price Action Has Waterfall Potential

Paul Robinson, Strategist

DAX Technical Highlights:

  • DAX bearish channel could soon lead to swift downdraft
  • Feb 2016 trend-line not seen as much of a help
  • Continue watching the U.S. market (S&P 500)

Check out the newly released DailyFX Q2 Forecasts for the DAX, Euro, and other major markets, in addition to our Top Trading Opportunities for 2018 – DailyFX Trading Guides.

DAX bearish channel could soon lead to swift downdraft

Last week, we expressed our sentiment that meltdown risk for the DAX is rising. This week? The general bias is the same, with risk of a swoon still on the climb as the German benchmark finds little sponsorship within the confines of a bearish channel.

Since the initial drop off the record highs in January, the DAX has been bouncing its way lower, and in the process carving out ever so slightly lower-lows and lower-highs. At some point, given this poor price behavior and continued failure to mount a real recovery, longs may be ready to throw in the towel and sell in earnest.

Below lies the Feb 2016 trend-line, but given the bearish price sequence is unfolding just above it confidence is low that it will hold. The recent low and the trend-line are in near confluence, a strong push below the two thresholds could have the swoon we’re looking for well underway. In the event of aggressive selling, 11428 is first up as minor support, but there isn’t any major support until the 2011/16 trend-line down around 10600/700.

Rising volatility shaking your confidence? Check out this guide for 4 ideas on how to Build Confidence in Trading.

DAX Daily Chart (Bearish channel setting up for another swoon)

DAX daily price chart, bearish channel setting up for another swoon...

Continue watching the U.S. market (S&P 500)

The U.S. stock markets continue to weaken, as the S&P 500 flirts with leaving the 200-day MA behind. In the world of equity markets, especially in the U.S., the 200-day MA is considered a major threshold. As the saying goes, “bulls live above, bears below”, or something to that effect. Should we begin seeing pervasive selling in the S&P 500, an increasingly likely event, then look for global markets to decline with it.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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