News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Dollar Index has broken major uptrend support and risks accelerated losses into the December open. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/Txo8l8S1f1 https://t.co/YLVzP95JH8
  • The MACD is an indicator that uses exponential moving averages (EMA) to determine trend strength along with entry points based on crossovers. Find out how you can use the MACD as a buy/sell signal here: https://t.co/qxnP99uqTQ https://t.co/tGVqSZ2zK3
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/reMoYpqkQO
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/sqeRL7Rf7u
  • Cyclical and non-cyclical stocks can help diversify a trader’s equity portfolio. Get your guide to understanding these stocks here: https://t.co/h7BKTd2J8N https://t.co/ukOW0dWJxf
  • Beautifully put. https://t.co/0fBsmUH6Pb
  • Gold prices could claw back lost ground ahead of the non-farm payrolls report for November, buoyed by a dovish FOMC, falling real yields and rising inflation expectations. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/3mqut0yQIQ https://t.co/nfyycibwKM
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/UWnLJHVPN4
  • Rather than focusing on earning a specific number of pips per day, traders need to focus on what can be controlled. In trading terms this relates to following a strategy perfectly, with no emotion or hesitation. Learn more here: https://t.co/6ZH026QLRN https://t.co/JJIyKh8r1l
  • That if you’re offended by what someone says on Twitter and that ruins your day, you live an extremely lucky life to be able to have that be your biggest problem for the day. https://t.co/H9KQjR3ViK
DAX Trading Outlook: Bear-flag or Rally, Either Way Watch the Higher-lows

DAX Trading Outlook: Bear-flag or Rally, Either Way Watch the Higher-lows

2018-02-28 09:09:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
Share:

DAX Technical Highlights:

  • DAX continues to chop its way higher, looking corrective so far
  • The higher-lows in the price sequence are what matter for longs/shorts

For longer-term fundamental and technical analysis on the DAX & Euro, and our top trade ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

DAX continues to chop its way higher, looking corrective so far

The ‘rally’ off the low continues to smack more of a corrective bounce than it does the beginning of a broader move higher. However, corrections (bear-flag in this case) can last for periods of time longer than expected before continuing back in the direction of the trend. Or, eventually morph into a broader rally at some point as market confidence is restored. There are signposts to watch here as this plays out.

There have been a couple of dives lower (2/14 & 2/22) on an intra-day basis which were met with strong buying pressure. These reversal days are helping keep the upward trend intact and a series of higher lows in place. Given how powerful these bullish reversal days have been their lows are important.

At the current time, should the DAX take out the 2/22 low at 12283 it will be the first break of the bullish sequence, and a sign that the correction has ended. It should be noted that each new higher-low created along the way will become the new reference point. For example, if today the market were to rally back towards a new swing high from Monday, then today’s low would become the higher low to watch.

For ideas on how to build or restore confidence, check out Building Confidence in Trading

DAX Daily Chart

DAX daily chart with higher lows

The higher-lows in the price sequence are what matter for longs/shorts

Should the corrective price action continue, it’s possible it could morph into a broader trend higher, but momentum at some juncture will need to pick up for this to be the case. From a tactical standpoint, whether you are approaching the market from the long or short-side, watching those higher lows can be a good cue as to how to play the current upward move.

As long as the DAX keeps carving out higher lows and higher highs, then longs may find themselves with an opportunity to see how the DAX can handle a fairly large amount of resistance around 12745. For shorts, if the market is in a corrective phase, then patiently waiting for a break in the bullish sequence will provide a better edge as the path of least resistance starts tilting back lower.

In either case, the higher lows are important for both sides of the tape.

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES