Highlights:
- DAX dives with risk sentiment souring, euro not the issue at the moment
- Next support level arrives around 13137, then 13000/12900 (trend-lines)
- Shorts look to continue having the upper hand for now
For longer-term fundamental and technical analysis on the DAX & Euro, and our top trade ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.
Risk sentiment sours, takes weak DAX with it
Last week, when we looked at the DAX we noted that euro strength might not be an issue for European equities, but rather waning risk appetite for stocks, globally, could become the bigger problem. The euro has chopped sideways since, but the Nikkei, FTSE, and others have been rolling over. The S&P 500 was showing signs of instability in its upward ascent.
So far, this week we have seen further deterioration in risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 finally giving up some ground, and more selling in other key global markets. We may not be in full-blown ‘risk-off’ mode, but it’s enough that the already precarious positioning of the DAX led to more selling the past couple of sessions.
Technical levels and considerations
With yesterday’s close below 13222 (a small lower-low from 1/25), the DAX is positioned for lower prices. Next up is 13137, the 1/17 low. With an acceleration in selling below support the August trend-line will quickly come into play, and then the more important trend-line dating back to June 2016. These two lines arrive in the vicinity of 13000/12900.
From the tactical standpoint, the path of least resistance is down, favoring short-sellers. To turn the picture bullish, it will require momentum to turn around, and soon; even then there has been a decent amount of technical damage since notching a record high just last week.
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Chart – DAX: Daily
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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