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  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year)
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
DAX Technical Outlook Leading Up to ECB

DAX Technical Outlook Leading Up to ECB

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • DAX trying to capture June trend-line, but struggling to do so
  • On a move higher ~12300 will become a big focal point
  • ECB tomorrow, how the euro reacts will be important

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The DAX is struggling to make any headway, as attempts to climb above the trend-line running off the June high fail. Yesterday, the market was putting in a good showing beyond the noted line of resistance before carving out a minor key reversal day. The reversal doesn’t necessary put the market at immediate risk, but it is the second time since the end of last week we have seen a turn lower on the current bounce from below 11900.

The 200-day MA may be providing some help here to keep the index propped up; it is currently running higher at 12052. If the market can remain supported and a clean break above the June trend-line can develop, focus will turn towards an even more important area of resistance. The area surrounding 12300 has been formidable since the end of July, with it having been influential as far back as April. This is a significant area of interest for both sides of the tape. Stay below and the outlook remains for more choppy range price action with a negative bias to it; trade above and the market may grow legs.

The euro has certainly been influential on the DAX in recent months, with the 3-month correlation at a strongly negative 94%. Tomorrow, we have an ECB meeting and the market will be looking for better clarity as to their intentions with the current QE program. The euro looks vulnerable for a setback, as we’ve been discussing recently. If the ECB sparks more weakness in the single-currency, it could be what the DAX needs to break above both previously mentioned levels of resistance. Or, if we see the euro regain traction to the upside the trend lower in German equites (albeit might still be choppy) could reassert itself.

DAX: Daily

DAX Technical Outlook Leading Up to ECB

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.