DAX Technical Outlook Leading Up to ECB
- DAX trying to capture June trend-line, but struggling to do so
- On a move higher ~12300 will become a big focal point
- ECB tomorrow, how the euro reacts will be important
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The DAX is struggling to make any headway, as attempts to climb above the trend-line running off the June high fail. Yesterday, the market was putting in a good showing beyond the noted line of resistance before carving out a minor key reversal day. The reversal doesn’t necessary put the market at immediate risk, but it is the second time since the end of last week we have seen a turn lower on the current bounce from below 11900.
The 200-day MA may be providing some help here to keep the index propped up; it is currently running higher at 12052. If the market can remain supported and a clean break above the June trend-line can develop, focus will turn towards an even more important area of resistance. The area surrounding 12300 has been formidable since the end of July, with it having been influential as far back as April. This is a significant area of interest for both sides of the tape. Stay below and the outlook remains for more choppy range price action with a negative bias to it; trade above and the market may grow legs.
The euro has certainly been influential on the DAX in recent months, with the 3-month correlation at a strongly negative 94%. Tomorrow, we have an ECB meeting and the market will be looking for better clarity as to their intentions with the current QE program. The euro looks vulnerable for a setback, as we’ve been discussing recently. If the ECB sparks more weakness in the single-currency, it could be what the DAX needs to break above both previously mentioned levels of resistance. Or, if we see the euro regain traction to the upside the trend lower in German equites (albeit might still be choppy) could reassert itself.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.