Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to recieve updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from Daily FX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

What’s inside:

  • DAX gaps above resistance and runs early
  • Barring a reversal, new highs soon; but there is a key line of resistance not far above in record territory
  • NFPs later today, sans a major deviation from expectations not likely to have a strong impact

Find out what’s driving global equity markets in our market forecasts.

On Wednesday, the sentiment we expressed regarding the DAX was one of patience, waiting for the range since mid-May to break – one way or another. The gap this morning came swiftly above recent resistance in the low 12700s; buying interest off the open was strong with about 70 points worth of gains added in the first twenty minutes.

General appetite for stocks is healthy.

Leading into the strong European showing this morning was Asia popping overnight, with the Nikkei tacking on 1.6% to finish out above the 20k psychological level and to its highest level since August 2015. Leading into that was a nice-sized rally in the U.S. yesterday, where the S&P 500 tacked on 76 bps of its own to close at yet another new record high.

As long as the DAX can hold onto most of its gains from here through the end of the session, or even better yet, add to them, then it stands to continue forging on to new highs. But if it does the market will be in for a quick test of an influential line with its origins dating back to February. There are several inflection points, and most recently it acted as support in May. So even if the DAX breaks to a new high above 12842 it will have to muscle through the top-side slope in order to gain further traction.

Heads up: Later today, the US jobs report is due out at 12:30 GMT. Non-farm payrolls are expected to print 180k for May, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.4%. Whether this report will be a market-mover will depend on how large of a deviation from expectations we see. Even then, as often times is the case with data releases, the brunt of impact is likely to be felt more in FX/rates/precious metals. In any case, traders need to be prepared. See the economic calendar for release details.

DAX: Daily

DAX Jumps Hurdle, Heading Towards New Record

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.