DAX: Weak Posturing on Daily Time-frame, Hourly Chart in Focus
- The DAX remains weakly postured on the weekly and daily time-frame
- Short-term trend-line keeping market supported, watching for a break
- US NFP number due out today, could shake up markets with a strong deviation from expectations
As we have been discussing recently, the DAX is quite weak when we look at the trend off the record 2015 highs, and also postured poorly when looking out over the past few months since finding a top in April. Yesterday, we discussed the lower highs, lower lows coming further into view the past couple of months, with the most recent lower high – assuming it holds – coming right at a solid area of resistance around the 9800 level. The next step up – a lower low beneath the ‘Brexit’ day lows.
DAX (Ger30) Daily [Weekly]
Pulling in a bit closer we can see on the hourly chart a trend-line off the 6/24 low which is keeping the short-term supported. A channel is also beginning to take shape as well. Further development of this channel followed by the DAX breaking below the lower trend-line will present a solid guide for short entries with in mind a move will unfold towards the 6/24 low at 9161 and possibly lower. A break below 9161 will create a lower low on the daily chart and continue the series of lower highs and lower lows over the past couple of months.
Head’s up: We have sizable event risk colliding with the afternoon hours in Germany, with the US jobs report due out at 12:30 GMT. Analyst are looking for Non-farm payrolls to show a rebound in June following the May figure which was the worst print since September 2010. NFP is expected to show 180k new jobs were added to the US economy during June, while the unemployment rate is anticipated to tick higher to 4.8% from 4.7%. The market will also be watching for signs of wage inflation via the average hourly earnings figure, expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.5%.
The US jobs number is not likely to have a serious impact on the DAX, but should we see a significant deviation from expectations, then US stocks are likely to show a strong reaction and its impact will be felt elsewhere at least to some degree.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.