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DAX Technical Analysis: Stuck in the Mud

DAX Technical Analysis: Stuck in the Mud

2016-07-07 08:48:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
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What’s inside:

  • The DAX continues to be a global laggard
  • Pushes back towards the ‘Brexit’ day low
  • Lower lows and lower highs continuing to unfold

The last time we discussed the DAX we noted it as one of the weaker stock markets compared to other major global indices. Following the sharp decline on the vote in the UK the DAX failed to muster the same kind of bounce experienced elsewhere, which provided a glaring insight as to where ‘sellers are living’.

After pushing through an area of resistance in the mid-9600s the DAX lost momentum on Friday/Monday at the next area of resistance in the 9730/820 zone. The decline from resistance resulted in the index falling back towards the lows created in the immediate aftermath of the ‘Brexit’ vote. Indeed, a weak market.

While the trend structure in recent months isn’t very clean, there is a series of lower highs and lower lows continuing to develop. With a little more weakness that price sequence could further mature itself in the not-too-distance future. As long as the DAX remains below the recent swing high at 9812 (another lower high), the next lower low would arrive on a drop below the 6/24 low at 9161.

For now, we will continue to view the DAX through a bearish lens given its poor technical posturing and relative weakness. If a lower low from here can develop, there isn’t much preventing it from picking up momentum towards the February low at 8695. This would certainly be consistent with the downward trend in place since the record highs set in April 2015. On the flip side, if the DAX turns higher from here, indicating a successful retest of the recent lows, and can hurdle the recent swing high then we would need to consider bullish alternatives.

DAX (Ger30) Daily

DAX Technical Analysis: Stuck in the Mud

Check out our Q3 forecasts for FX, commodities, and global stock markets.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX.

He can be emailed directly at instructor@dailyfx.com with any questions, comments, or concerns.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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