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DAX 30 Technical Analysis: Probing Support

DAX 30 Technical Analysis: Probing Support

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • The DAX turns lower, testing first area of support around 10200
  • More important support comes in the 10100/150 vicinity, needs to hold for bullish bias to maintain
  • Still viewed through bullish lens, but if support breaks that changes

The DAX began its turn lower yesterday, and is currently probing our first level of support today near 10200. This support consists of the backside of the broken trend-line off the November 2015 peak we discussed yesterday and the ‘2011 trend-line’ on the weekly which has been influential going back several months. The idea at this juncture is, given the market broke out above the key 10100/00 zone (more importantly 10100) and trend-line resistance (11/2015), the path of least resistance should be higher. A turn higher from either support level and/or a consolidation will be viewed as a potential buying opportunity.

The two-hour chart reveals a bit closer the short-term levels worth watching at this time. If 10200 doesn't hold, the stronger area of support comes in around 10100/50, where several prior inflection points have cemented this area as significant. A breakdown below 10100 would likely lead to another test of 10000, and increase the likelihood that the run higher starting last week could be fully reversed. The high from yesterday at 10374 presents near-term resistance, but if the up-move from the 5/24 low is the 'real deal' then it should not present much of a problem. Beyond the Tuesday high is the 4/21 high at 10486 and then the trend-line off the April 2015 record high, roughly in the 10600 vicinity at this time.

For now, with the DAX sinking lower we will focus our attention on support in the 10100/150 vicinity should it reach it, and look for momentum to turn back higher. If this area can’t be held, as stated earlier, further weakness is likely to continue.

DAX (GER30) Daily

2-hour

On Thursday, we have big event risk with the ECB meeting on the docket. There are no expectations of the central bank making any policy changes, but Draghi commentary in the press conference is likely to spark at least some volatility which could result in short-term price levels getting tested in both directions.

Check out our 2016 forecast along with other helpful guides - Here.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter @PaulRobinsonFX, or email him directly at instructor@dailyfx.com.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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