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DAX 30: Corrective Phase or the Beginning of a Downturn?

DAX 30: Corrective Phase or the Beginning of a Downturn?

2016-04-27 09:59:00
Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst
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Talking Points

  • The DAX 30 moves lower, against the bullish monthly trend.
  • The short-term trend defining level is yesterday’s high of 10,389.
  • German Import Prices declined 5.9% YoY.

At the time of writing the DAX 30 (CFD: GER 30) was lower by 0.5% on the day. The price also maintained its short-term downtrend, which has been in place since last week following a rise to 10,490.

The most recent swing high is the yesterday’s top of 10,389, which is preceded by the April 21 high of 10,490; the lower swing highs leaves the short-term trend bearish. Short-term support levels are yesterday’s low of 10,211 and the April 14 high of 10,110.

While the very short-term trend is bearish, the trend from early April is bullish. The relevant levels for this trend are the April low of 9437 and last week’s low of 9906. At some point, either the very short-term down trend or the monthly trend would need to break. We note that the longer-term trends tend to be more stable. However, it is impossible to know with certainty which trend will prevail.

DAX 30 | CFD: GER30

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

Earlier today, German Import Prices declined 5.9% YoY, which is a new low of the current downturn. The reading was higher than the -6.2% expected as per a Bloomberg News survey. Following the report, the Eurozone 2-year swap was little changed.

We do note that there is a high correlation between Eurozone CPI YoY and German Import Prices YoY and we ask ourselves - will the low German Import Prices prelude a lower Eurozone CPI? If it is the case then it may keep the ECB under pressure to keep rates low for longer, which is something that the DAX 30 tends to like.

This afternoon the Fed Rate Decision is deck and could affect the GER 30, for more on this, please see ‘Dollar and Equities Strategy Heading for Fed Decision’, by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist.

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Data source: Bloomberg.

Our forecasts for Q2 2016 are now live on the site. Download them for free.

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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