Talking Points
- The DAX 30 (CFD: GER30) has stalled below the critical resistance level and March high of 10,118.
- A break to the March high would have exposed the January 5 high of 10,400.
- Macro-economic events, which may introduce some volatility to the DAX 30, are both U.S. Industrial Production and University of Michigan Confidence.
- The share price of DAX 30 firms tends to react to U.S. data as these firms source much of their gains from overseas and the U.S. business cycle tends to lead the European.
The DAX 30 (CFD: GER30) has stalled below the critical resistance level and March high of 10,118. A break to the March high would have exposed the January 5 high of 10,400 and kept the bullish momentum going; instead, price remains trapped in the 9437 to 10,188 range. The 9437 to 10,188 levels have kept the DAX 30 trapped since March. A break to the lower end of the range, the April 7 low of 9437 may expose the next support level, which is the February 24 low of 9123.
Macro-economic events, which may introduce some volatility to the DAX 30, are U.S. Industrial Production and University of Michigan Confidence. The share price of DAX firms tend to react to U.S. data as these firms source much of their gains from overseas and the U.S. business cycle tends to lead the European.
Industrial Production, due today, will help us to know better where U.S. GDP may be headed. Currently, it is one of the trouble spots of the U.S. economy, and the year-on-year growth has been consistently negative since September of last year. Development is primarily driven by the suffering energy sector and the strong USD.
Today, the month-over-month change is projected to have declined by -0.1% from -0.5% in February. Ideally, for bullish DAX traders the MoM growth increases and thereby beats the expected outcome, potentially triggering a bullish bias to the DAX. A lower than anticipated result may have an adverse effect on the DAX.
The University of Michigan Confidence tends to receive a great deal of attention, but some economists note that their record as an indicator of household spending tends to be poor. Economist consensus projects a rise in the index from 91 in February to 92.
Our forecasts for Q2 2016 are now live on the site. Download them for free.
DAX 30 | FXCM: GER30
Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano
--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00
