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DAX 30: Break of 11,154 May trigger Further Gains, PMIs on Tap

DAX 30: Break of 11,154 May trigger Further Gains, PMIs on Tap

Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

Talking Points

  • DAX 30: A sustained break to Thursday’s high of 11,154 may trigger further gains
  • E.U. Markit Mfg. PMI and Services PMI are on tap this morning
  • In the afternoon, the focus shifts to U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI

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The DAX 30 remains in a short-term upward trend and a sustained break to Thursday’s high of 11,154 may open for a rally towards the psychological level of 11,250. If the DAX index does not break Thursday’s high, the DAX 30 is expected to drift lower on profit taking. Traders interested in buying a pullback are probably eying the 11k mark as a potential entry level. The overall trend is bullish above the November 17 low of 10,864.

PMIs from Europe and U.S. on Tap

On tap are E.U. Markit Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI, with the former forecasted to print 52.3 according to a Bloomberg news survey, while the latter being expected to print 54.1. I would expect the DAX 30 to be supported on better than expected readings. In the case that the outcome is lower than expected, we may see the DAX 30 pullback on profit taking.

In the long run the DAX is supported, as pointed out last week, by the German ZEW index, which may have set a medium-term low and may move higher over the next few months. The ECB has been making it very clear that they are ready to boost inflation and growth, and these two drivers are not expected to change quickly. A third factor supporting the DAX is the EURUSD, which keeps on trading to new lows.

In the afternoon the focus shifts to Markit US Manufacturing PMI and economist consensus forecasts an outcome of 54 from 54.1. A softer than expected outcome may trigger some profit taking, but as long as the print is not much lower than 54 I don’t expect the overall stock market trend to change.

Chicago Fed Index and U.S. Existing Home Sales are also on tap.

Upcoming Risk Events, GMT

09:00, E.U. Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (NOV P), est.52.3

09:00, E.U Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV P, est. 54.1

13:30, U.S. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (OCT), est. 0.08

14:45, U.S. Markit US Manufacturing PMI (NOV P), est. 54

15:00, U.S. Existing Home Sales (MoM) (OCT), -2.7%

DAX 30: Break of 11,154 May trigger Further Gains, PMIs on Tap

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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