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Sterling Outlook: Pound Rebound Remains Precarious- GBP/USD Levels

Sterling Outlook: Pound Rebound Remains Precarious- GBP/USD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Sterling Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Weekly Chart
  • GBP/USD rebound vulnerable while below yearly open resistance
  • Key resistance 1.3175-1.3250 – Critical support 1.2693-1.2754
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The British Pound is up more than 0.4% against the US Dollar into the weekly open but keeps Sterling within the confines of a key price range we’ve been tracking for weeks now. The weekly rebound may have some steam near-term but the broader risk still remains tilted to the downside with the immediate focus on a break of a key price range. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Cable trade setup and more.

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Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Sterling Weekly Price Outlook we noted that GBP/USD was, “testing a critical medium-term support zone and the immediate focus is on inflection off this threshold.” The zone in focus was 1.2693-1.2754- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the 2018 low-week close and the 2019 objective yearly open. A rebound off this key zone in late September gathered pace into the October open with Sterling rallying more than 3.2% off the recent lows.

The recovery failed last week at the 50% retracement (high registered at 1.3084) - a pullback off this mark keeps the focus on a break of the 1.2693-1.3080 range for guidance with the broader weighted to the downside while below critical resistance at 1.3175/1.3250- a region defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September range / 2018 decline and the 2020 yearly open. A break / close below key support at 1.2693-1.2754 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend with such a scenario exposing the June low-day close / 2018 low at 1.2478/81.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom Line:Last week’s British Pound price reversal keeps the focus on a break of the recent range for guidance with the broader risk still lower below the yearly open. From a trading standpoint, “the risk remains for some recovery off this mark but look for topside exhaustion ahead of 1.3175 IF price is heading lower with a break / close sub-1.2693 needed to shift the broader focus back to the downside. I’ll publish and updated Sterling Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.”

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Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart - British Pound vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short GBP/USD - the ratio stands at -1.57 (38.96% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are1.85% lower than yesterday and 16.77% lower from last week
  • Short positions are29.90% higher than yesterday and 0.24% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
GBP/USD BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -17% 36% 13%
Weekly -36% 43% 4%
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Key UK / US Data Releases

Key UK / US Data Releases - GBP/USD Economic Calendar - Key Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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