News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March https://t.co/4cI6l210ui
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/CRWhuZ3sxD https://t.co/svHHqN2Zz8
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES https://t.co/qogkjs1Sx2
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/dlNXOrJnM9 https://t.co/LCQd26W1zF
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB https://t.co/N4EDfwD3nZ
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk. https://t.co/AazskXGjHq
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT https://t.co/oYnm2OYRky
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/AquMSrssne https://t.co/DtFuFfrS7Q
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year) https://t.co/Nome25d9Bt
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
Sterling Outlook: Pound Rebound to be Short Lived- GBP/USD Levels

Sterling Outlook: Pound Rebound to be Short Lived- GBP/USD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Sterling Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Weekly Chart
  • GBP/USD rebounds off key technical support pivot at 1.2693-1.2754
  • Critical resistance 1.3175 – Break lower risks 1.2481
Advertisement

The British Pound is firmer against the US Dollar this week with Sterling up nearly 0.9% after rebounding off a critical support pivot in price. The focus is no a reaction off this technical threshold heading into the open of October / Q4 trade with outlook tilted to the downside while below yearly open resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly technical chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Cable trade setup and more.

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly

Sterling Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly - British Pound vs Dollar Trade Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Sterling Weekly Price Outlook we noted to, “be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion into these upcoming resistance targets – ultimately a larger pullback may offer more favorable opportunities closer to uptrend support with a breach above 1.3335 needed to unleash the next leg higher in Cable.GBP/USD registered a weekly close high at 1.3349 before faltering with a price plummeting nearly 6% off the September high.

The decline is now testing key support confluence at 1.2693-1.2754- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range, the 2018 low-week close and the 2019 objective yearly open. Note that the May trendline converges on this zone over the next three-week and further highlights the technical significance of this key pivot zone. A break below this threshold would suggest a larger trend reversal is underway with a subsequent support objectives eyed at the June low-week reversal close / 2018 low at 1.2478/81 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2204.

Initial resistance eyed at 1.2984 backed by 1.3175 and the yearly open at 1.3250- a close above this threshold would be needed to mark resumption of the March uptrend with such a scenario exposing the 2019 high-week close at 1.3335 and critical resistance at the upper parallel (blue) / 2017 high-week close at 1.3494.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom Line: The British Pound price sell-off is now testing a critical medium-term support zone and the immediate focus is on inflection off this threshold. From a trading standpoint, the risk remains for some recovery off this mark but look for topside exhaustion ahead of 1.3175 IF price is heading lower with a break / close sub-1.2693 needed to shift the broader focus back to the downside. I’ll publish and updated Sterling Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart

Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart - British Pound vs Dollar Outlook - Cable Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.17 (53.98% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are1.26% higher than yesterday and 6.25% higher from last week
  • Short positions are5.85% higher than yesterday and 8.20% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

---

Key UK / US Data Releases

Key UK / US Data Releases- GBP/USD Economic Calendar - Sterling Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES