GBP/USD FORECAST: POUND STERLING PRESSURED AHEAD OF BREXIT TALKS, US DOLLAR SELLOFF STABILIZES
- GBP/USD might target February lows near 1.2850 after spot prices quickly reversed lower off the 1.3000 handle
- The Pound Sterling faces downward pressure with the restart of Brexit negotiations next week looming over GBP price action
- The US Dollar has started to rebound broadly as coronavirus concerns look to trump a rise in Fed rate cut bets
GBP/USD has slid markedly so far during Wednesday’s trading session amid broad-based weakness in the Pound Sterling and strength in the US Dollar.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -5% | -4% | -4% |
| Weekly | 23% | -25% | -7% |
Uncertainty that surrounds upcoming Brexit talks next week could explain the latest bit of downside in GBP price action. Meanwhile, coronavirus concerns linger and likely underscore sustained demand for safe-haven currencies like the USD.
GBP/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (SEPTEMBER 2019 TO FEBRUARY 2020)
I noted in a Pound Sterling forecast published last week that spot GBP/USD prices were hovering around the 200-day exponential moving average, which showed potential to keep the cable bolstered.
GBP/USD initially bounced off this technical support zone, but the Pound Sterling has since slid lower against the US Dollar by about 100-pips after the major currency pair touched the 1.3000 handle.
Technical resistance around the 1.3000 mark is plentiful. This area of confluence, highlighted by the 50-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October to December rally last year, has strong potential to keep GBP/USD price action bogged down.
GBP/USD PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (JANUARY 2020 TO FEBRUARY 2020)
Shifting gears to a 4-hour GBP/USD chart brings to light three prominent swing lows printed this month between 1.2850-1.2900.
A drop below this region could open up the door for further downside in spot GBP/USD prices and encourage British Pound bears to target November lows near the 1.2800 handle.
On the other hand, a rebound off this level of technical confluence could send GBP/USD price action back toward the February 25 intraday swing high.
-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com
Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight
