As we sit within the shadow of the June 23 vote, an estimated £25 Billion Pounds have been bet via options to sell the GBP, and the Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC on Friday, June 10 show the most bearish view on Sterling in 52-weeks.
As mentioned in the first webinar, this all presents significant upside risk even if we get a gap down on a close ‘Vote Leave’ after the multi-billion pound position is cashed in on profit taking. Many traders feel the GBP/JPY cross would be the best short-play on a ‘Vote Leave’ due to the JPY’s capacity to strengthen in times of uncertainty.
A ‘Vote Remain’ would likely favor a significant unwind of the short GBP exposure that is present in the market, and GBP/USD upside, as well as EUR/GBP downside, are plays being watched by institutions if the UK decides to stay in the world’s largest single market.
Either way, there is still more events in the future such as Spanish & Italian Elections not to mention a Presidential Election in the United States that could continue to provide event risk and volatility.
Thank you for joining us for this series, and we hope you enjoyed the information and presentation.
If You Would like to watch the Prior to Webinars In the ‘EU Referendum Series’, you may access them below.
June 07, 2016:
