News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Please join @ddubrovskyFX at 20:00 EST/00:00 GMT for a webinar on what other traders' buy/sell bets say about price trends. Register here: https://t.co/AzOQioRZER https://t.co/uy1tAhiwGY
  • RT @FxWestwater: $NZDUSD Wedge Breakout Back in Play on Stellar Q2 Jobs Report Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/08/03/NZDUSD-Wedge-Breakout-Back-in-Play-on-Stellar-Q2-Jobs-Report.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/YAIqqu5RDB
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 44.2 Previous: 56.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • $AUDNZD likely to attempt closing at a new 2021 low over the remaining 24 hours following the stellar New Zealand jobs report The December 2020 low has been further exposed at 1.0418 since July's #RBNZ rate decision New Zealand bond yields on the rise https://t.co/ipjwkSNt9n https://t.co/ncQX4hL8G3
  • Strong jobs report lifts $NZD - Money markets pricing in a 93% probability of a 25bps hike at the August meeting (previously 77%) - Over the forecast horizon, the RBNZ had projected (in the May MPS) the unemployment rate to gradually fall to 4.3% https://t.co/G5Ejzl2H6L
  • #NZDUSD cautiously higher after solid New Zealand jobs report Unemployment rate declined to 4.0% in Q2 from 4.7% prior (vs 4.4% anticipated) Job gains were at 1.7% y/y vs 1.2% expected Data seems to be supporting the case for a less-dovish #RBNZ given the cease to QE recently https://t.co/XmzhuLXh1H
  • 🇳🇿 Unemployment Rate (Q2) Actual: 4% Expected: 4.5% Previous: 4.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • 🇳🇿 Employment Change QoQ (Q2) Actual: 1% Expected: 0.7% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Final (JUL) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 56.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • The Nasdaq 100 may continue outperforming Dow Jones futures ahead as fears about global growth continue weighing on the 10-year Treasury yield ahead of NFPs. What are the risks? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/kADmxIfyHt https://t.co/VUltiTLch1
GBP/JPY Price Outlook: Further Bearish Momentum Hints at 139.00

GBP/JPY Price Outlook: Further Bearish Momentum Hints at 139.00

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst

Technical Analysis

All eyes on UK Prime Minister Theresa May meeting the 1922 Committee.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart highlighting a trend reversal.

See the Q2 GBP and JPY forecasts to learn what is likely to drive price action through mid-year!

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive look at all key data releases.

GBP/JPY Daily Price Chart (Oct 18 – May 16, 2019)

GBP/JPY Price Daily Chart

Negative Break to The Downside

Since early Jan GBP/JPY has been trading to the upside from the higher-high created on Jan 25 at 144.84, to Feb 7 higher low at 141.01. On Feb 25 the pair opened with an exhaustion gap indicating that the uptrend would end soon.

GBP/JPY started to correct this movement on April 3 carving a lower high at 147.20 and a higher low on April 9 at 144.78, then to start a bearish movement creating on April 12 another lower high at 147.01 with a lower low on April 25 at 143.76.

On May 6 bearish momentum gained strength when the price opened with a breakaway downside gap, starting a sell-off so the price closed on May 10 at 142.98. On Monday GBP/JPY opened with a measuring gap at 142.77 encouraging the pair to move further to the downside breaking below the levels mentioned in last week article 141.90 and the 141.04 – 140.94 zone.

Read more in: Significant Trading Levels and Zones

Alongside this development it’s worth noting the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), pointing lower since May 10, dipped yesterday below 30 into oversold territory.

Summary: Since yesterday GBP/JPY has been flirting with 140.50 therefore, if the price closes below the bearish movement might continue hinting towards 139.00. Support levels at 140.14, 139.94 and 139.47 are worth monitoring. If GBP/JPY closes above 140.50 it suggests the pair could rally towards the higher end of the trading range at 141.90 contingent on prices breaking through the resistance zone at 141.01 – 141.14 and then 141.53.

GBP/JPY will move to a higher trading range if it closes above 141.90.However, the pair need to clear resistance levels at 142.19 and 142.84 before testing 143.21.

Just getting started?See our beginners’ guide for FX traders

GBP/JPY 2 Hours Price Chart (May 16, 2019)

GBPJPY price 2H Chart

Sellers Hesitation

Yesterday, GBP/JPY closed below 141.01 and headed towards 140.50.However, the price failed twice to close below this level. Today, the pair also failed twice to close below 140.50 and accompanied with RSI pulling back from the oversold territory to 34, this may reflect seller hesitation at this stage.

If buyers can take the initiative back and push GBP/JY above the140.90 – 141.04 zone, the next level of significant resistance is at 141,81. Resistance levels at 141.42 and 141.53 need to be monitored.

If bearish momentum gains strength and GBP/JPY break below the140.19 -140.14 zone, the pair could swing lower pushing towards 139.47 contingent on clearing support level at 139.94.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

Having trouble with your trading strategy?Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES