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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis:160 Is the Line in the Sand

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis:160 Is the Line in the Sand

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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Talking Points:

  • GBP/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat.
  • GBP/JPY continues to run higher after hitting support off of the 27.2% extension of the prior major move.
  • If you’re looking for additional trade ideas, check out our Trading Guideand if you’re looking for shorter-term ideas, check out our SSI indicator.

In our last article we wrote about the Fibonacci extension on GBP/JPY at 151.61 that provided near-term support as the basis for a retracement in the longer-running down-trend. Since that article, the retracement hasn’t really calmed much, as price action has continually throttled up to higher-highs and higher-lows. This retracement extended on Friday, as rumors of a negative rate loans out of the Bank of Japan being issued to banks elicited further Yen weakness.

Price action for this week gapped higher, right into the 38.2% retracement of the prior major move; and this is the same Fibonacci retracement whose extension provided that near-term bounce that we discussed in our last article. This presents a quandary in the identification of the near-term trend. While this recent bout of strength has been notable, we’re still well below previously-established highs. This morning’s test of 160.04 offers a higher-low that could be used to denominate stance for the next week; and given that this is a major psychological level, this can be used to denote near-term biases.

For traders looking to get short, waiting for breaks of this support could allude to the potential for the return of the down-trend; while those looking to buy can use this as a basis level for stop placement.

The four-hour chart may provide usable structure for a week in which heavy volatility is expected on the back of an outsized slate of announcements. On the 4-hour chart below, we’re looking at near-term price action structure to illustrate how traders might be able to approach GBP/JPY moving forward.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis:160 Is the Line in the Sand

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.