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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: 3-Year Uptrend in the Balance

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: 3-Year Uptrend in the Balance

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • GBP/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Pound Digesting Losses After Hitting Four-Month Low vs. Yen
  • Near-Term Support Break May Mark End of Multi-Year Uptrend

The British Pound is treading water against the Japanese Yen as prices consolidate losses having dropped to the lowest level in nearly four months. Near-term support is in the 184.42-98 area, marked by the July 8 low and the 100% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this boundary on a daily closing basis initially targets the 123.6% level at 181.86. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 76.4% Fib at 186.98 sees the next upside boundary at 188.56, the 61.8% retracement.

Critically, current support is also the site of a major long-term trend line (not shown) guiding the dominant rising trend since June 2012. With the final days of August fast-approaching, even a near-term break of immediate support could thus double as a potentially tectonic trend shift opening the door for a sustained downward reversal.

As it stands, the absence of an actionable trade setup argues against taking a position on either the long or short side. We will carefully monitor positioning for confirmation of the larger trend reversal however, looking to enter short once an opportunity presents itself.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.