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Euro Price Forecast: Euro Defends Yearly Low– EUR/USD Recovery Levels

Euro Price Forecast: Euro Defends Yearly Low– EUR/USD Recovery Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels & sentiment – Weekly Chart
  • EUR/USD rebound off downtrend support now eyeing downtrend resistance
  • Weekly support 1.1695, 1.1616 critical; Resistance 1.1867, bearish invalidation 1.1894

Euro is trading fractionally higher against the US Dollar into the start of the week with EUR/USD attempting to build on last week’s reversal off support. While further upside potential remains, the advance may be short lived as the recovery approaches downtrend resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart heading into the September open / US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) on Friday. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Weekly - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Foreacst

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the EUR/USD sell-off was, “approaching key support into the yearly lows at 1.1695 and we’re looking for guidance off this mark. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch into this support zone – rallies should be capped by the August open at 1.1867 IF price is heading lower.” Euro briefly registered an intra-week low at 1.1663 before reversing with the subsequent rally extending more than 1.3% off those lows.

The outlook / levels remain largely unchanged heading into the close of the month. Monthly open resistance steady 1.1867 backed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May decline at 1.1894- a region of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. A close below 1.1695 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend with such a scenario exposing critical support at the 2019 & 2016 highs / the 100% extension of the yearly decline at 1.1570-1.1621.

Bottom line: The Euro recovery may yet have some room to stretch but the topside may be limited heading into the September open. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards the median-line- risk for exhaustion into the 1.19-handle. Ultimately a break lower may offer more favorable entries closer to key technical support near 1.16. Review my latest Euro Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro Retail Positioning - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.11 (47.32% of traders are long) – typically neutral reading
  • Long positions are25.08% lower from last week
  • Short positions are4.34% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week- The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key Eurozone / US Data Releases

Key Eurozone / US Data Releases - Economic Calendar - EUR/USD Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.