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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Plunge Targets Key Support at 2021 Low

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Plunge Targets Key Support at 2021 Low

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Near-term Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • EUR/USD plummets towards key technical support at the yearly lows
  • Resistance 1.1760, 1.18- Key Support at 1.1695, 1.1621

Euro plunged more than 0.7% against the US Dollar this week with EUR/USD plummeting towards critical support at the yearly lows. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD technical price charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro technical setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Price Outlook (late-June) we warned to, “be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion while below the 1.20-handle with a break / close below 1.1824 needed to suggest a larger sell-off is underway.” Price registered a high at 1.1975 before turning sharply lower with EUR/USD plummeting more than 2.2% off that high. The decline is now approaching a key technical support zone at 1.1695-1.1704- a region defined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 advance & the objective yearly / March low and converges on channel support. Looking for possible price inflection off this zone with the immediate decline vulnerable while above- it’s make-or-break here with the next significant support zone seen at 1.1602/21 in event of the break.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 240min - Euro Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD trading within a descending pitchfork formation extending off the late-June highs with the lower parallel further highlighting support at 1.1695-1.1704. Initial resistance now back at the yearly low-week close at 1.1760 with near-term bearish invalidation set to the weekly opening-range highs at 1.1801/07- a pivot there would expose 1.1831 with a breach / close above the objective monthly open at 1.1866 needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway.

EUR Forecast
EUR Forecast
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Bottom line: Euro has once again plummeted towards key support at the yearly lows and while the medium-term risk remains lower, the immediate decline may be vulnerable while above 1.1695. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – look for topside exhaustion ahead of the median-line IF price is heading lower with a break lower exposing a more significant plunge towards the next major support zone at the November lows / 100% extension / October 2018 high at 1.1602/21. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for an in-depth look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +1.41 (58.45% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are 11.90% higher than yesterday and 10.62% lower from last week
  • Short positions are7.12% lower than yesterday and 12.31% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% -26% -9%
Weekly 28% -45% 0%
Learn how shifts in Euro retail positioning impact trend
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Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Key Euro / US Economic Calendar - EUR/USD Key Data Releases - Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.